-11%

est. 2Y upside i

DevOps & InfraSeries A

Open source BI tool for dbt analytics engineers

Rank

#3760

Sector

Business Intelligence, Developer Tools

Est. Liquidity

~5Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Lightdash is a high-risk equity position with a negative probability-weighted expected return of approximately -11% over a 2-year horizon.

Last updated: May 5, 2026

Bull (10%)+200%

Lightdash becomes the de facto BI layer for the dbt ecosystem and is acquired by a data cloud player (Snowflake or Databricks) within 2 years at a ~$150-200M valuation, implying roughly 3-4x the estimated ~$50M Series A post-money. This requires a dramatic step-change from $1M ARR and 6% YoY growth — a steep ask against incumbents with orders of magnitude more resources.

Base (37%)+30%

Lightdash solidifies its dbt-native niche, grows ARR to $3-5M over 2 years, and raises a modest Series B at ~$70-90M post-money. Equity remains fully illiquid at the 2-year mark with a ~30% paper gain on an estimated ~$50M entry valuation, and further dilution from the new round partially offsets that.

Bear (53%)-80%

6% YoY revenue growth fails to accelerate meaningfully, exhausting the estimated 18-24 months of runway from the October 2024 $11M Series A by late 2026; the company pursues a down round, acqui-hire, or wind-down. Common stockholders face near-total loss as $19.4M in liquidation preferences are absorbed before any proceeds reach them.

Est. time to liquidity~5.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

3880%

$19.4M in total liquidation preferences sit ahead of common stock against an estimated ~$50M Series A post-money valuation, implying roughly 39% of enterprise value is consumed before employees receive any proceeds in a sale.

Dilution Risk

high

At $1M ARR and 6% growth, Lightdash will almost certainly require a Series B within 18-24 months, likely adding 20-30%+ dilution to the current common stock pool before any liquidity event.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market exists for Lightdash equity at this stage and revenue scale; any liquidity is entirely contingent on an acquisition or IPO, neither of which is probable within a 2-year window.

Engineering — 2 roles

Lightdash — 1 role

View all 6 open roles at Lightdash →

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Lightdash's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “Your public ARR figure is ~$1M growing at 6% YoY — what is the current monthly growth rate, what's driving the acceleration plan, and at what ARR milestone does the board consider the business durably scaling?”

  • 2

    “What is the average contract value and net revenue retention for paying cloud customers, and how efficiently is Lightdash converting its open-source user base into paying accounts?”

  • 3

    “Can you share the fully diluted cap table, the exact post-money valuation from the October 2024 Series A, and the vesting schedule and exercise window for the equity package being offered — including whether options are ISOs and what the strike price implies relative to the 409A?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -11% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.