-6%

est. 2Y upside i

Series C

Collaborative data workspace for analytics SQL and Python notebooks

Rank

#2436

Sector

Enterprise Software

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Given the high preference overhang ($172M) on a $400M valuation and negative expected common return (-5.5%), this equity grant carries significant risk.

Last updated: July 21, 2026

Bull (20%)+109%

Hex achieves IPO within 2 years, sustaining a 13.5x revenue multiple on projected $50.5M revenue, yielding a $682M exit. Common stock returns 108.6% after preference and dilution.

Base (55%)-13%

Revenue grows to $50.5M but multiple converges to 8x, inline with public comps. Exit value $404M, but preference stack of $172M erodes common returns to -13.25% after dilution.

Bear (25%)-80%

Revenue growth disappoints or multiple compresses to 5x, resulting in $252.5M exit. After preference, common gets only $80.5M, yielding a -79.7% return after dilution.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

43%

Total preferred stock of $172M implies a 43% preference overhang at the $400M valuation, meaning common equity value is only $228M.

Dilution Risk

moderate

With $70M raised in May 2025 and likely 2+ years of runway, a future raise is not imminent but possible, estimated 15% dilution over 2 years.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market transactions reported; shares are illiquid until an exit event.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Hex's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    How does Hex plan to differentiate from Databricks and Snowflake as they expand into collaborative analytics?

  • 2

    What is the current annual recurring revenue growth rate and how does it vary by customer segment?

  • 3

    Given the $70M Series C, what is the expected timeline to profitability and what milestones trigger an IPO?

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -6% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.