Stripe vs Adyen

Side-by-side comparison of model-estimated upside.

Stripe

+31%

est. 2Y upside i

FinTechSeries D+

Rank

#1907

Sector

Fintech

Est. Liquidity

~2Y

Data Quality

Data: High

Stripe offers credible but measured equity upside for an employee entering at the $159B secondary valuation — the probability-weighted 2-year expected return is approximately 31%, contingent on an IPO or sustained secondary market activity.

Last updated: May 4, 2026

Adyen

-51%

est. 2Y upside i

FinTechSeries C

Rank

#3696

Sector

Fintech

Est. Liquidity

~2Y

Data Quality

Data: High

The expected equity return is -51% over 2 years, driven by a high entry valuation ($30B at 11.5x revenue) and slowing growth.

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Note: These companies have different risk levels. Stripe (Moderate Risk) and Adyen (Higher Risk). A higher expected upside in a higher-risk company comes with greater uncertainty. Compare within the same risk tier for more meaningful evaluation.

Upside Comparison

Expected Upside

Stripe

+31%

Adyen

-51%

Disclaimer: These rankings are AI-generated estimates and do not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.