-37%

est. 2Y upside i

CybersecuritySeries B

XBOW, founded by Oege de Moor, is an AI-powered offensive security company that accelerates the discovery of vulnerabilities and exploits in software.

Rank

#1004

Sector

Cybersecurity

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

XBOW presents a moderate upside opportunity driven by its innovative AI-powered autonomous offensive security platform and strong competitive moat.

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (30%)+250%

XBOW's proprietary AI continues to outperform human hackers, expanding its autonomous offensive security platform to new enterprise segments and geographies, achieving significant market share in the growing $3.9B TAM. This drives revenue to over $200M by 2028, justifying a $3.5B+ valuation at a premium multiple, well above the current $1B.

Base (40%)+75%

XBOW maintains its strong competitive position in autonomous penetration testing, growing steadily by capturing a solid share of the $780M SAM. Revenue reaches approximately $100M by 2028, leading to an acquisition or IPO at a $1.75B valuation, reflecting solid execution but facing increased competition.

Bear (30%)-60%

Dominant cybersecurity incumbents like CrowdStrike or Palo Alto Networks launch directly competing AI-powered offensive security solutions, or new well-funded AI-native competitors gain significant traction. This commoditizes XBOW's offering, slowing growth, and leading to a down round or acquisition at a significantly reduced valuation of $400M, wiping out much of the common stock value.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

moderate

Investors hold $117M in liquidation preferences, representing 11.7% of the estimated $1B valuation.

Dilution Risk

moderate

As the company is in talks for a new funding round, further dilution for existing common shareholders is likely.

Secondary Liquidity

limited

Selling private XBOW stock is sometimes possible through secondary markets or company-organized tender offers, but is not active or guaranteed.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on XBOW's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “Given the emergence of new AI-native cybersecurity startups and the potential for incumbents like CrowdStrike to expand, how does XBOW plan to maintain its strong competitive moat and differentiate its platform over the next 2-3 years?”

  • 2

    “With the 'Pentest On-Demand' service and a usage-based revenue model, what are the key metrics the company tracks to ensure efficient customer acquisition and expansion, and how do you see revenue scaling to justify a multi-billion dollar valuation?”

  • 3

    “Considering the reported $1 billion valuation for an upcoming round, how is the company thinking about the timeline for a liquidity event (IPO or acquisition) for employees, and what are the current plans regarding secondary liquidity options?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -37% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.