+63%

est. 2Y upside i

CybersecuritySeries C

XBOW, founded by Oege de Moor, is an AI-powered offensive security company that accelerates the discovery of vulnerabilities and exploits in software.

Rank

#1305

Sector

Cybersecurity

Est. Liquidity

~4Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

XBOW is a credible but higher-risk equity bet.

Last updated: May 14, 2026

Bull (30%)+150%

A strategic acquirer — SentinelOne, Accenture, or Microsoft given existing ecosystem integrations — or a strong public-market window drives XBOW to a $2.5B exit by 2028. At that level the $270M liquidation preference converts rather than pays out, and common shareholders capture approximately 150% upside from the $1B grant-date valuation.

Base (52%)+50%

XBOW executes steadily, closes a Series D at a $1.5–1.8B valuation, and is acquired or reaches pre-IPO status by 2028–2029. After absorbing the $270M preference stack on a ~$1.5B exit, common shareholders realize roughly 50% upside — solid but constrained by dilution from further rounds and continued illiquidity.

Bear (18%)-45%

Revenue ramp disappoints, hyperscaler native AI-security suites (Microsoft, AWS) commoditize the autonomous pentest category, and XBOW is forced into a distressed sale near $600M. At that exit the $270M liquidation preference leaves common shareholders with only ~$330M in aggregate, a roughly 45% loss from $1B paper value.

Est. time to liquidity~4.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

high

Funding Intensity

27%

$270M in cumulative liquidation preferences sits senior to common stock on a $1B valuation; at any exit below roughly $750M, common shareholders receive less than 75 cents on the paper dollar.

Dilution Risk

high

A 2-year-old company with $270M raised will almost certainly require at least one more primary capital round before any liquidity event, likely diluting current grants by 15–25%.

Secondary Liquidity

limited

Strategic investor-customers (Accenture, Samsung) may facilitate limited tender offers alongside future rounds, but no organized secondary market currently exists for XBOW shares.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on XBOW's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “What is current ARR and net dollar retention, and what is the average contract value and sales cycle for a new enterprise logo?”

  • 2

    “How does XBOW's roadmap differentiate from Microsoft Copilot for Security and CrowdStrike Charlotte AI — especially given you already have deep integrations with both ecosystems?”

  • 3

    “Are grants structured as ISOs or RSUs, what is the current 409A strike price relative to the $1B Series C price, and is there any secondary liquidity program or tender offer planned in the next 12–18 months?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates +63% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.