-1%

est. 2Y upside i

DevOps & InfraSeries A

Rank

#2314

Sector

Developer Tools

Est. Liquidity

~4Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

The equity is very unattractive: probability-weighted expected upside is -82.3%, driven by a $162.3M valuation based on old revenue ($2.8M ARR) and high growth that decays to $7.7M in 2 years, making multiples untenable.

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Bull (20%)-1%

Revenue grows to $7.7M as growth decays, exit multiple holds at 15x (e.g., IPO or category leadership), but after preference ($35M) and 20% dilution, common stock proceeds are only ~$64M, a 60.6% loss.

Base (45%)-1%

Revenue reaches $7.7M, exit multiple converges to 10x (in line with public comps), preference and dilution reduce common proceeds to ~$33M, a 79.5% loss.

Bear (35%)-1%

Revenue stalls at $7.7M, exit multiple compresses to 5x due to big tech competition, exit value barely exceeds preference, common stock recovers only $2.6M after dilution, a 98.4% loss.

Est. time to liquidity~4.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

high

Funding Intensity

2157%

Preference overhang is $35M on $162.3M valuation (21.6%), meaning common stock is deeply subordinate.

Dilution Risk

high

A funding round is likely within 2 years given cash burn and time since last round, diluting current holders by ~20%.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market activity reported; no recent secondary valuation.

Other — 8 roles

View all 8 open roles at Xata →

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Xata's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “Given the high competition from hyperscalers, how do you plan to differentiate Xata's product road map over the next 2 years?”

  • 2

    “With 100% YoY growth but only $2.8M ARR, what is the path to $50M ARR and what specific milestones do you track?”

  • 3

    “How do you think about the current valuation vs. public comps, and what is your expected timeline for an exit event?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -1% upside. What do you think?

Anonymous. Do not share material non-public information.

Community Discussion

Comments are reviewed before they appear publicly.

0/2000

Loading comments...

Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.