+44%

est. 2Y upside i

Aerospace

High-res hyperspectral pictures of Earth from space

Rank

#1912

Sector

Space Data

Est. Liquidity

~5Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Wyvern offers genuine technology differentiation in a fast-growing niche ($3.4B TAM, 12.6% YoY growth), but the employee equity story is complicated by severe structural risks.

Last updated: May 14, 2026

Bull (25%)+180%

Wyvern successfully penetrates U.S. government and enterprise AgTech markets, growing revenue from $13.7M (2023) to ~$28M by 2027–28, and closes a Series B at ~8x revenue (~$220M valuation). Common shareholders benefit from a ~3x step-up in implied equity value net of an estimated 20–25% dilution from the new round.

Base (45%)+40%

Wyvern executes steadily on U.S. expansion, growing revenue to ~$18–20M by 2026–27 and raising a Series A extension at ~5–6x revenue (~$95–110M implied valuation). After dilution, common shareholders see roughly 40% appreciation from an estimated current post-money value of ~$70–75M.

Bear (30%)-65%

A prolonged space-tech funding winter, intensified competition from Planet Labs or a newly hyperspectral-capable incumbent, and high constellation buildout costs force a down round or bridge at ~$25–30M valuation. Common equity is severely diluted, recovering approximately 35 cents on the dollar.

Est. time to liquidity~5.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

37%

$27.4M in cumulative preferred funding sits ahead of common equity on an estimated post-money valuation of ~$70–80M, meaning the preference stack absorbs roughly 35–40% of current implied enterprise value before common shareholders receive any proceeds.

Dilution Risk

high

High capital intensity for satellite constellation buildout will require multiple additional financing rounds; each Series A/B round typically dilutes existing common equity by 15–25%, compounding materially over a 5-year horizon.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No known secondary market, tender offer, or liquidity program exists for Wyvern equity; all liquidity depends on a strategic acquisition or IPO, neither of which is likely within the 2-year analysis horizon.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Wyvern's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “What is the current ARR or revenue run rate entering 2025, and which specific U.S. customer contracts or signed LOIs underpin the growth thesis funded by the recent $6–8M raise?”

  • 2

    “What percentage of 2023 revenue ($13.7M) was recurring under multi-year constellation-as-a-service contracts versus one-time imagery licensing, and what is the average contract length?”

  • 3

    “What is the most recent 409A valuation per common share, the total fully-diluted share count, and the aggregate liquidation preference held by existing preferred investors?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates +44% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.