-44%

est. 2Y upside i

AerospaceSeries D+

High-res hyperspectral pictures of Earth from space

Rank

#3078

Sector

Space Technology

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Wyvern is a late-stage space technology company with a strong proprietary hyperspectral imaging moat and a recent strategic investment from NordSpace.

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (30%)+100%

Successful deployment of the next-generation Rosette satellites with deployable optics leads to superior data quality and cost-efficiency, enabling Wyvern to capture significant market share in defense and agriculture. Revenue grows to $50M-$60M by 2028, justifying a $440M valuation, a 2x increase from the current estimate.

Base (45%)+10%

Wyvern maintains its competitive position and achieves steady growth in its target niche markets, such as specific agricultural applications and government contracts. Revenue reaches $40M-$50M by 2028, leading to a valuation of approximately $242M, a modest increase from the current estimate.

Bear (25%)-40%

Dominant incumbents like Planet or Spire launch highly competitive hyperspectral offerings or aggressively reduce pricing, eroding Wyvern's market share. Technical delays with the Rosette satellite deployment or higher-than-expected capital expenditure lead to growth stagnation, with valuation dropping to $132M, significantly impacting common stock value.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

moderate

Investors hold $27.4M in liquidation preferences ahead of common stock. In an exit at or below $27.4M, common stock would receive little to nothing.

Dilution Risk

moderate

Given the high capital intensity and ongoing development of new satellites, further funding rounds are likely, which could lead to additional dilution for existing equity holders.

Secondary Liquidity

none

There is no indication of active secondary markets or tender offers for Wyvern's shares at this time.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Wyvern's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How do you plan to maintain your cost advantage and proprietary technology lead against larger, well-funded incumbents like Planet and Spire as they potentially develop or acquire similar hyperspectral capabilities?”

  • 2

    “With an estimated $22M in revenue and a TAM of $1.8B, what are the key milestones and growth strategies over the next 24 months to significantly increase market penetration and scale revenue, particularly with the upcoming Rosette satellites?”

  • 3

    “Given the recent 'Later Stage VC' round and the capital-intensive nature of space technology, what is the company's anticipated timeline for a liquidity event (e.g., IPO or acquisition) and how does the preference stack impact common stock holders in various exit scenarios?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -44% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.