Windbornesystems

windbornesystems.com →

+28%

est. 2Y upside i

AI & MLAerospaceSeries A

Rank

#1424

Sector

Weather Intelligence, AI, Aerospace

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

The equity offer carries meaningful upside (28% expected) but severe preference overhang: $24.9M of preferred sits atop a $25.5M valuation, so common stock is effectively levered to a growth exit.

Last updated: August 3, 2026

Bull (25%)+119%

Projected ARR of $12.2M exits at 5x ($61M) if WeatherMesh achieves category leadership and an IPO/M&A window opens. After estimated 20% dilution, common-stock-equivalent upside is ~119%.

Base (50%)+47%

Projected ARR of $12.2M sustains a 3.5x comparable multiple ($43M exit), slightly above the $25.5M entry mark. After 20% dilution, upside is ~47%.

Bear (25%)-100%

If government contracts slip or capital needs force a down round, multiple compresses to 1.5x ($18M exit), below the $24.9M liquidation preference; common stock is wiped out (-100%).

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

98%

Total funding of $24.9M equals 97.6% of the $25.5M valuation, leaving only ~$0.6M of value for common shares; any exit below $24.9M wipes out common entirely.

Dilution Risk

high

Funded runway likely near end (last raise May 2024; capital-intensive); a Series B may dilute common by ~20% or more.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market identified; pre-IPO common is illiquid and likely requires a change-of-control or IPO to monetize.

Other — 1 role

View all 1 open roles at Windbornesystems →

Last updated: February 22, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Windbornesystems's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does WindBorne plan to defend WeatherMesh's accuracy advantage as NOAA and large tech players invest in AI meteorology?”

  • 2

    “What is the per-balloon cost, lifetime, and data margin, and how much new capital is needed to reach global coverage?”

  • 3

    “What is the fully diluted cap table, option pool size, and any acceleration/liquidity provisions, given the $24.9M preference overhang?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates +28% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.