Windbornesystems

windbornesystems.com →

-47%

est. 2Y upside i

AI & MLAerospaceSeries A

Rank

#392

Sector

Weather Intelligence, AI, Aerospace

Est. Liquidity

~4Y

Data Quality

Data: High

WindBorne Systems presents a strong upside opportunity driven by its innovative proprietary balloon technology and a demonstrably superior AI weather forecasting model (WeatherMesh) that has surpassed Google DeepMind's GraphCast.

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (35%)+350%

WindBorne's WeatherMesh model maintains its superior accuracy, becoming the industry standard for AI weather forecasting, and its global balloon constellation scales rapidly to 10,000 units by 2028, capturing significant market share from traditional and new players. This drives revenue to over $200M within two years, justifying a valuation of $380M+.

Base (30%)+100%

WindBorne continues to grow steadily, leveraging its proprietary data and AI model to secure additional government and commercial contracts. While facing competition from incumbents like Google DeepMind, it carves out a strong niche, doubling its revenue to ~$40M and achieving a valuation of $170M.

Bear (35%)-80%

Dominant incumbents or well-funded competitors like Google DeepMind rapidly close the accuracy gap with their own AI models, or regulatory hurdles significantly slow balloon deployment. This leads to slower-than-expected revenue growth, increased burn, and a down round, reducing the valuation to $17M and significantly eroding common stock value due to liquidation preferences.

Est. time to liquidity~4.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

high

Funding Intensity

29%

Investors hold $25M in liquidation preferences ahead of common stock. In an exit at or below $85M, common stock holders would see their returns significantly reduced or eliminated until the $25M preference is paid out.

Dilution Risk

high

As a Series A company, WindBorne will likely require multiple additional funding rounds to achieve its ambitious scaling goals, leading to further dilution for current equity holders.

Secondary Liquidity

limited

While some platforms track secondary market pricing for WindBorne Systems, there is no indication of an active or formal secondary market for employee equity.

Other — 1 role

View all 1 open roles at Windbornesystems →

Last updated: February 22, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Windbornesystems's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does WindBorne plan to maintain its algorithmic and data advantage against well-funded incumbents like Google DeepMind, especially as they continue to invest heavily in AI weather modeling?”

  • 2

    “With plans to operate 10,000 balloons by 2028, what are the key operational and logistical challenges, and how is the company addressing the capital intensity required for this scale?”

  • 3

    “Given the $25M in total funding on an $85M valuation, how does the company envision future funding rounds impacting employee equity, and what is the anticipated timeline for a liquidity event for common stock holders?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -47% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.