Waza

Waza successfully leverages its proprietary banking relationships and Lync product to capture significant market share in B2B cross-border payments for emerging markets, expanding into new African regions and effectively piloting trade financing solutions. This drives ARR to over $30M by 2028, justifying a $450M+ valuation at a 15x ARR multiple, a 5x increase from the current estimated valuation.

Waza maintains its strong growth trajectory in core markets, reaching $12M ARR by 2028, but faces intense competition from incumbents like Payoneer and Airwallex, limiting its pricing power and market penetration. This leads to a $180M valuation, a 2x return, as it continues to grow but struggles to achieve dominant market leadership.

Dominant incumbents intensify competition, offering more aggressive pricing and broader services, while new regulatory hurdles in key emerging markets slow Waza's expansion. Growth stalls, and the company struggles to raise subsequent funding rounds at a favorable valuation, leading to a down round or acquisition at a significantly reduced valuation of $18M, wiping out most common stock value given the preference stack.