Wave

Wave successfully leverages its low-cost model and network effects to expand aggressively into new West African markets, capturing significant market share from traditional telecom operators and growing its user base to over 40 million. Strategic partnerships and product diversification (e.g., micro-lending) drive revenue to over $400M by 2028, justifying a $4.25B valuation at a 10x revenue multiple, well above the current $1.7B.

Wave maintains its strong position in Francophone West Africa, continuing to grow its user base and transaction volumes steadily. It faces ongoing competition from incumbents and other fintechs but sustains its low-cost advantage. Revenue grows to approximately $235M by 2028, leading to a $2.55B valuation at a 10.8x multiple, offering a moderate return on current equity.

Increased regulatory scrutiny, aggressive pricing by well-funded competitors like Flutterwave and OPay, or slower-than-expected expansion into new markets stifle Wave's growth. Revenue stagnates around $180M, and a challenging funding environment leads to a down round or flat exit at $1.02B. Given the $448M in liquidation preferences, common stock value is significantly diluted, resulting in a substantial loss for employees.