+131%

est. 2Y upside i

Climate TechSeries A

Water risk mitigation for industrial sites

Rank

#221

Sector

Climate Tech / Sustainability Software

Est. Liquidity

~5Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Waterplan's fundamentals are among the strongest we see at the Series A stage — 82% YoY ARR growth, 80% gross margins, a strong competitive moat via proprietary AI and satellite data, and an enterprise customer list that de-risks churn.

Last updated: May 14, 2026

Bull (35%)+300%

Waterplan sustains 70%+ YoY growth, reaching ~$50M ARR by end of 2026, and raises a Series C at 15x ARR (~$750M valuation) — a ~5x return from today's estimated $130-170M implied valuation. Strategic distribution via Kurita Water Industries and mandatory EU CSRD water disclosure reporting drive accelerated enterprise logo adds, positioning the company as a credible IPO candidate by 2028-2029.

Base (40%)+100%

Growth moderates to 50-55% YoY as Waterplan crosses $30M ARR in 2026 and raises a Series B at ~10x ARR (~$300M valuation), roughly doubling from today's estimated $150M implied valuation. Existing marquee customers (Coca-Cola, Diageo, AB InBev) expand seats and modules, but new logo acquisition slows as the $186M SAM approaches meaningful penetration and the sales cycle for large industrials lengthens.

Bear (25%)-55%

Growth decelerates sharply to sub-30% YoY as U.S. regulatory momentum on climate disclosure stalls and incumbents like Sphera or S&P Global launch AI-native water risk modules that compress Waterplan's pricing power and net new ARR. The company raises a flat or down round near $70-80M, and common stockholders absorb a 50-60% haircut on paper value from today's implied entry price, with liquidity pushed well past 2030.

Est. time to liquidity~5.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

moderate

Funding Intensity

12%

Total funding of $18.5M against an estimated implied valuation of $130-170M yields a ~11-14% liquidation preference overhang — meaningful dilution to common in a downside scenario but not structurally crushing at a healthy exit.

Dilution Risk

high

With at least 2-3 institutional funding rounds ahead before a likely liquidity event (Series B, Series C, and possibly growth equity), cumulative additional dilution to today's employee stake of 40-60% is the base-case expectation.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market signals exist for Waterplan equity; employee liquidity is entirely binary and dependent on an M&A or IPO event, which is realistically 4-6 years away given the 2020 founding and Series A stage.

View all 2 open roles at Waterplan →

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Waterplan's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “Waterplan filed an exempt offering in August 2023 suggesting ~$18.8M in new equity — what was the post-money valuation at that close, and has there been any internal 409A revaluation since that better reflects the $16.9M ARR milestone?”

  • 2

    “With the SAM for water risk intelligence at ~$186M and current penetration near 4.2%, how does Waterplan plan to expand into adjacent sustainability reporting or operational water efficiency markets to sustain the growth rate needed for a Series B at premium multiples?”

  • 3

    “What are the vesting schedule, cliff period, and acceleration provisions on equity grants, and does the company have a tender offer or secondary program history that would give early employees any liquidity before a formal exit?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates +131% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.