-78%

est. 2Y upside i

Healthcare

Rank

#3234

Sector

Biotechnology

Est. Liquidity

~2Y

Data Quality

Data: High

Verastem presents a risky but potentially rewarding equity opportunity.

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (25%)+100%

Successful expansion of AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK market share and positive confirmatory trial results (RAMP 301), coupled with breakthrough clinical data for VS-7375 in KRAS G12D-mutated pancreatic, lung, or colorectal cancers, drives significant revenue growth to over $150M by 2028, justifying a market cap of over $1.1B.

Base (40%)+25%

AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK achieves self-sustainability and modest market penetration, while VS-7375 shows promising but not breakthrough results, leading to continued R&D investment. Revenue grows steadily to $60-80M by 2028, supporting a market cap of around $700M.

Bear (35%)-40%

Increased competition in ovarian cancer, setbacks in the RAMP 301 confirmatory trial, or disappointing clinical outcomes for VS-7375 in advanced indications lead to slower-than-expected revenue growth and continued high cash burn. This necessitates further dilutive financing, pushing the market cap down to $330M or lower, significantly eroding common stock value.

Est. time to liquidity~2.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

moderate

The latest private placement of $75M (April 2025) represents approximately 13.4% of the current market capitalization, indicating a moderate level of capital raised relative to valuation, though for a public company, common stock typically does not have liquidation preferences.

Dilution Risk

high

The company is unprofitable and burning cash, and despite a cash runway into H1 2027, high R&D costs and potential future financing needs pose a significant risk of further dilution, as evidenced by a public offering in November 2025.

Secondary Liquidity

active

As a publicly traded company on Nasdaq (VSTM), common stock is actively traded, providing immediate secondary liquidity for employees.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Verastem's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “Given the strong early data for VS-7375 in KRAS G12D NSCLC and the strategic decision to discontinue RAMP 203, how is Verastem prioritizing its clinical development efforts to maximize the impact of VS-7375 across different tumor types like PDAC and CRC, especially with the amended Phase 1/2 protocol?”

  • 2

    “The LGSOC franchise is projected to be self-sustaining by H2 2026. What are the key commercial strategies and milestones to achieve this, and how will this impact the company's overall cash burn and path to profitability?”

  • 3

    “With the recent public offering in November 2025 and the expected cash runway into H1 2027, what is the company's long-term financing strategy, and how does it plan to manage potential future dilution for common shareholders given the high capital intensity of drug development?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -78% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.