-21%

est. 2Y upside i

HealthcareIPO

Rank

#2789

Sector

Biotechnology

Est. Liquidity

~0Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Given the negative probability-weighted expected return of -20.9% over a 2-year horizon, the high incumbent threat, and the need for additional funding, the equity offer is unattractive.

Last updated: July 19, 2026

Bull (10%)+80%

Pipeline success (e.g., VS-7375 approval) drives revenue and multiple expansion to 12x. Exit value $1.25B, upside capped at 100% pre-dilution.

Base (45%)-3%

Gradual revenue growth to $104M, multiple compresses to 6x. Exit value $624M, modest upside offset by dilution.

Bear (45%)-61%

Clinical setbacks or increased competition drive multiple to 3x. Exit value $312M, severe downside with high preference overhang.

Est. time to liquidity~0.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

high

Funding Intensity

24700%

Total preferred funding of $122.5M represents 23% of current valuation, creating significant overhang for common shareholders.

Dilution Risk

high

Company likely requires additional capital within 2 years, given burn rate and pipeline investment, resulting in dilution of ~20%.

Secondary Liquidity

active

As a publicly traded company on Nasdaq, shares are liquid and can be sold upon vesting.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Verastem's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does Verastem plan to differentiate from Novartis and Gilead in targeting RAS/MAPK pathways?”

  • 2

    “What is the revenue trajectory for approved products and how reliant is the pipeline on single indications?”

  • 3

    “Given the public equity structure, what is your expected dilution from future offerings and how do you align with common shareholders?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -21% upside. What do you think?

Anonymous. Do not share material non-public information.

Community Discussion

Comments are reviewed before they appear publicly.

0/2000

Loading comments...

Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.