-5%

est. 2Y upside i

Series A

Absorbable wrap for blood vessels

Rank

Unranked

Sector

Surgical Devices

Est. Liquidity

~6Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

VenoStent is a high-risk, binary-outcome equity position that should be treated as a lottery ticket rather than a compensation component — the probability-weighted expected upside over 2 years is approximately -5%, driven by a 35% chance of near-total loss if the 200-patient pivotal trial fails.

Last updated: May 14, 2026

Bull (15%)+300%

SelfWrap hits its primary endpoint in the 200-patient pivotal trial, receives FDA approval via its Breakthrough Device pathway by late 2026, and attracts a strategic acquisition by a major medtech player (e.g., Stryker, BD) at a $300–400M exit — roughly 4–6x the estimated Series A post-money of ~$65–75M. Employee common stock sees approximately 3x appreciation over the 409A grant price after preferred conversion and residual dilution.

Base (50%)-40%

Trial completes with mixed or delayed results requiring additional follow-up data or a supplemental FDA submission; the company raises a Series B of ~$40–60M in 2025–2026 at a modest premium, inflicting 20–30% additional dilution on common holders. Over the 2-year window the 409A barely moves and employee equity is worth 30–40% less than the grant-date value once new-round dilution is marked through.

Bear (35%)-85%

The pivotal trial fails its primary AV fistula patency endpoint, triggering a severe down round or wind-down; with $33.4M in preferred liquidation preferences ahead of common stock, employee equity is nearly wiped out. VenoStent's single-product focus on SelfWrap leaves no revenue-generating fallback, making near-total capital loss the dominant outcome in this scenario.

Est. time to liquidity~6.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

48%

$33.4M in total preferred liquidation preferences against an estimated post-money valuation of ~$65–75M implies the overhang consumes roughly 45–55% of total company value before any common shareholder receives a dollar.

Dilution Risk

high

A pre-revenue clinical-stage company will require at least one additional large financing round (estimated Series B of $40–60M) before commercialization, likely diluting the current common pool by 20–35% with new senior preferences stacking above existing.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market exists for shares of a 34-person clinical-stage medical device company; employees should assume complete illiquidity until a strategic acquisition or IPO, realistically 6–8 years away contingent on trial success.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on VenoStent's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “What are the primary endpoint definition and interim readout milestones for the 200-patient pivotal trial, and what is the contingency fundraising plan if the trial misses its primary endpoint?”

  • 2

    “Has the company initiated CMS coverage discussions under the Breakthrough Device pathway, and what specific CPT code or MAC reimbursement mechanism is being pursued for SelfWrap at commercial launch?”

  • 3

    “What is the current 409A valuation relative to the Series A preferred price, what option pool expansion is anticipated ahead of the Series B, and does the company have any employee liquidity provisions such as tender offers or secondary programs?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -5% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.