-64%

est. 2Y upside i

HealthcareSeries A

Absorbable wrap for blood vessels

Rank

#853

Sector

Medical Device

Est. Liquidity

~4Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

VenoStent presents a moderate upside opportunity with higher risk, primarily due to its clinical-stage status and the critical dependence on successful outcomes from its ongoing 600-subject US clinical trial.

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (25%)+400%

Successful completion of the 600-subject SAVE-FistulaS clinical trial, leading to timely FDA approval for SelfWrap, drives strong initial market adoption due to the high unmet need in AVF failure. This market penetration, coupled with the Breakthrough Device Designation, justifies a valuation of $400M (5x current) as VenoStent establishes itself as a leader in improving dialysis access outcomes.

Base (35%)+75%

Clinical trials demonstrate efficacy, leading to FDA approval, but market adoption is slower than anticipated due to competition from existing vascular access solutions or challenges in reimbursement. VenoStent achieves moderate market penetration, growing to a valuation of $140M (1.75x current) within the next few years, reflecting steady but not explosive progress.

Bear (40%)-80%

The 600-subject SAVE-FistulaS clinical trial faces significant delays, fails to meet primary endpoints, or regulatory approval is denied or substantially prolonged. This, combined with high capital burn and potential competitive advancements from incumbents, leads to a down round or a distressed acquisition, resulting in a valuation of $16M (0.2x current) and wiping out most common stock value due to liquidation preferences.

Est. time to liquidity~4.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

high

Funding Intensity

30%

Investors hold $24M in liquidation preferences ahead of common stock on the current $80M valuation.

Dilution Risk

high

As a clinical-stage medical device company with a large ongoing trial, VenoStent will likely require significant additional funding rounds, leading to further dilution for existing equity holders.

Secondary Liquidity

none

There is no indication of an active secondary market or tender offers for VenoStent's private shares at this early stage.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on VenoStent's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “The SAVE-FistulaS trial is a significant undertaking. What are the key milestones and potential challenges the team anticipates in completing the 600-subject trial and securing FDA approval, especially given the 36-month follow-up period?”

  • 2

    “VenoStent operates in a market with dominant incumbents like Medtronic and Becton Dickinson. How does VenoStent plan to differentiate its go-to-market strategy and secure market share against these established players once SelfWrap is approved?”

  • 3

    “Given the company's clinical stage and high capital intensity, what is the anticipated funding roadmap beyond the Series A, and how does the company plan to manage potential dilution for employees holding equity over the next 2-4 years?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -64% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.