Vayyar
-74%
est. 2Y upside i
Rank
#3867
Sector
Semiconductors
Est. Liquidity
~4Y
Data Quality
Data: LowGiven the stale June 2022 valuation of $1.5B versus $100M revenue (15x multiple), high incumbent threat, and likely need for a dilutive raise, the expected equity upside over 2 years is severely negative at -74%.
Last updated: July 3, 2026
If Vayyar maintains growth and an IPO window opens, the revenue multiple could sustain at ~10x, but dilution from a required funding round reduces net upside to -15%.
Multiple converges to semiconductor comp average of ~4.5x, coupled with 20% dilution from a necessary capital raise, leading to a 62% decline.
Revenue falls short, multiple compresses to 2x, and exit value of $318M is below $323M in preferred liquidation preference, wiping out common equity.
Preference Stack Risk
highFunding Intensity
22%Total funding $323M equals 21.5% of $1.5B valuation, meaning preferred holders would capture all proceeds in bear case up to $323M.
Dilution Risk
highNo funding in 3.5 years and layoffs indicate cash constraints; a 20% dilution from a new round is assumed.
Secondary Liquidity
noneNo secondary market data available.
Questions to Ask at the Interview
Strategic questions based on Vayyar's data — designed to show you've done your homework.
- 1
“How does Vayyar's single-chip radar compare to incumbents' multi-chip solutions in cost and performance?”
- 2
“What is the unit economics per sensor and how does subscription revenue contribute to margins?”
- 3
“Given the 2024 layoffs and no funding since 2022, what is the runway and path to breakeven?”
Community
Valuation Sentiment
Our model estimates -74% upside. What do you think?
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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.