+36%

est. 2Y upside i

FinTech

Rank

#2294

Sector

Fintech

Est. Liquidity

~0Y

Data Quality

Data: High

Upstart is a profitable, high-growth fintech company leveraging AI in a large lending market, with projected 35% CAGR and improving EBITDA margins.

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (30%)+90%

Upstart's AI models drive significant market share gains in auto and HELOCs, pushing revenue beyond $1.8B by 2027 with improved take rates and EBITDA margins reaching 25%. This strong performance and diversification justify a valuation of over $5.1B, representing a 90% upside from current levels.

Base (35%)+60%

Upstart maintains its competitive edge in personal lending and achieves steady growth in new segments, reaching $1.4B in revenue by 2026 and sustaining profitability. The company's valuation stabilizes around $4.3B, reflecting a 60% upside as it executes on its core strategy amidst ongoing market competition.

Bear (35%)-35%

Increased competition from incumbents and persistent macroeconomic headwinds lead to further pressure on Upstart's take rates and loan approval volumes. Revenue growth slows significantly below projections, and rising loss rates erode profitability, resulting in a valuation decline to $1.7B, representing a 35% downside.

Est. time to liquidity~0.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

low

Funding Intensity

5%

Total funding of $125M represents a low 4.57% of the current ~$2.73B market capitalization, suggesting a minimal preference stack ahead of common shareholders.

Dilution Risk

moderate

Upstart recently authorized a $100 million share repurchase program, which can offset dilution, but ongoing equity grants for compensation and potential future capital needs could lead to moderate dilution.

Secondary Liquidity

active

Upstart is a publicly traded company on NASDAQ (UPST), providing active liquidity for equity holders.

View all 65 open roles at Upstart →

Last updated: February 22, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Upstart's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How is Upstart planning to address the concerns around diminishing 'take rates' and conservative AI model responses, especially as it expands into new lending segments like auto and HELOCs?”

  • 2

    “With a projected 35% compound annual growth rate and 2026 revenue guidance of $1.4 billion, what are the key drivers for sustaining this growth, and how does the recent 'Cash Line' product fit into the overall expansion strategy?”

  • 3

    “Given the current market volatility and the company's recent share repurchase program, how does Upstart communicate its long-term equity value proposition to employees, and what is the expected timeline for significant liquidity events beyond public market trading?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates +36% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.