-39%

est. 2Y upside i

AI & MLSeries B

Rank

#508

Sector

Defense Technology / AI

Est. Liquidity

~4Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

TurbineOne, a Series B company with a $300M valuation, presents a compelling equity opportunity in the specialized defense AI sector.

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (30%)+300%

TurbineOne successfully expands its Frontline Perception System across multiple branches of the U.S. DoD and secures additional large-scale IDIQ contracts, potentially expanding into allied nations. This strong execution, coupled with its unique edge-first, offline AI capabilities, leads to a strategic acquisition by a major defense prime contractor at a valuation of $1.2B within two years, representing a 4x return on the current valuation.

Base (50%)+75%

TurbineOne continues to grow steadily within its existing DoD contracts, converting a significant portion of its IDIQ ceilings into recognized revenue. It maintains its competitive edge in the niche of offline, edge AI for national security, achieving a valuation of $525M within two years, driven by consistent contract wins and product enhancements.

Bear (20%)-60%

Increased competition from larger defense contractors adapting similar edge AI capabilities, coupled with slower-than-expected adoption or delays in converting IDIQ contracts into firm orders, hinders TurbineOne's growth. This leads to a down round or a less favorable acquisition, resulting in a valuation of $120M, wiping out a significant portion of common stock value due to liquidation preferences.

Est. time to liquidity~3.5 years

Preference Stack Risk

high

Funding Intensity

19%

Investors hold $57M in liquidation preferences. In an exit at or below $57M, common stock would receive little to nothing. At the current $300M valuation, common stock would be worth approximately $243M after preferences, assuming a 1x liquidation preference.

Dilution Risk

moderate

As a Series B company, TurbineOne is likely to pursue 1-2 more funding rounds before a potential IPO or acquisition, which will result in further dilution for existing equity holders.

Secondary Liquidity

limited

For a Series B company, secondary liquidity options are typically limited, with no active public market for shares.

View all 4 open roles at TurbineOne →

Last updated: February 22, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on TurbineOne's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “Given the significant IDIQ contracts with the DoD, how is TurbineOne planning to ensure consistent conversion of these contract ceilings into recognized revenue, and what are the key challenges in scaling delivery within the defense sector?”

  • 2

    “TurbineOne's competitive moat is described as moderate, with a medium incumbent threat. How does the company plan to further strengthen its competitive position against larger defense contractors or generalist AI companies that might develop similar edge AI capabilities?”

  • 3

    “With a Series B round completed in May 2025, what is the anticipated timeline for the next funding round or a potential liquidity event, and how does the company plan to manage potential dilution for employees?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -39% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.