+73%

est. 2Y upside i

HealthcareSeries B

Generative AI for Oncology EHRs

Rank

#1068

Sector

Healthcare AI

Est. Liquidity

~4Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Triomics offers a positive but highly speculative expected return of ~73% over a 2-year horizon, with the upside driven almost entirely by M&A optionality (a buyer already surfaced in April 2025) rather than near-term liquidity.

Last updated: May 14, 2026

Bull (30%)+200%

A strategic acquisition by a major healthcare IT or pharma player (IQVIA, Oracle Health, Epic) at $250-300M is plausible given the April 2025 M&A interest reported by PitchBook and an elite customer roster anchored by MSK and Mount Sinai. After clearing ~$28.9M in liquidation preferences on a $275M exit, common holders would see roughly 3.6x on grant-date implied value—capped under the Series B +300% ceiling.

Base (50%)+50%

Triomics raises a Series C at ~$140-160M post-money by 2026-2027 as ARR scales from $9.9M toward $18-22M off the MSK, Yale, and Mount Sinai deployments. No liquidity event materializes within the 2-year window; upside is paper-only and contingent on a future exit at an even higher mark.

Bear (20%)-60%

Epic Systems and Google Health AI accelerate native oncology trial-matching integrations, compressing Triomics' sales cycles and renewal rates. Revenue growth stalls below $15M ARR, triggering a flat or down round at sub-$70M that fails to clear the $28.9M preference stack and leaves common equity near worthless.

Est. time to liquidity~3.5 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

32%

Total funding of $28.9M against an estimated post-Series-B valuation of ~$90M implies preferences consume ~32% of current enterprise value before a single dollar flows to common stockholders.

Dilution Risk

moderate

A likely Series C raise within 18-24 months will add an estimated 18-25% dilution on top of any option pool refresh required to recruit senior talent at 66 employees.

Secondary Liquidity

limited

No secondary market activity is reported; any liquidity requires a tender offer, M&A close, or IPO—none of which are probable within the stated 2-year window.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Triomics's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “Following the PitchBook-reported M&A inquiry in April 2025, is the board's primary strategic path an independent Series C or a strategic sale, and how would either scenario affect option vesting and acceleration clauses?”

  • 2

    “What is the net revenue retention rate across your anchor health system customers, and what share of the $9.9M ARR is recurring fixed subscription versus performance- or volume-based fees that could compress under budget pressure?”

  • 3

    “What was the 409A fair market value used for the most recent option grants, and can you share the fully-diluted cap table including the size and composition of the outstanding option pool?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates +73% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.