Trigger.dev
-71%
est. 2Y upside i
Trigger.dev is the platform for building AI workflows in TypeScript. Long-running tasks with retries, queues, observability, and elastic scaling. We're building the world's best open source AI agent and workflow platform.
Rank
#1733
Sector
Developer Tools, AI Workflow Automation
Est. Liquidity
~4Y
Data Quality
Data: MediumTrigger.dev operates in a massive and rapidly growing AI workflow automation market with a differentiated open-source, developer-first approach.
Last updated: March 10, 2026
Trigger.dev becomes the leading open-source platform for production-grade AI agent and workflow orchestration, capturing significant market share from both legacy workflow tools and cloud provider offerings due to its developer-first approach and robust feature set. This drives rapid adoption and usage-based revenue, reaching $100M ARR by 2028 and justifying a $320M+ valuation (4x current assumed valuation) at a 3.2x revenue multiple, well within the TAM.
Trigger.dev establishes itself as a strong niche player in the AI workflow automation space, growing steadily by serving developers building complex, code-driven AI agents. It faces continued competition from incumbents but maintains its market position. Revenue grows to $30M ARR by 2028, leading to an acquisition or next funding round at a $120M valuation (1.5x current assumed valuation) at a 4x revenue multiple.
Intense competition from cloud providers (AWS, Google, Microsoft) and well-funded competitors like Temporal, who expand their offerings to directly target Trigger.dev's niche, leads to pricing pressure and slower-than-expected adoption. The company struggles to differentiate sufficiently, resulting in growth stalling and a down round or acquisition at a significantly reduced valuation of $16M (0.2x current assumed valuation), wiping out most common stock value given the $20.3M liquidation preferences.
Preference Stack Risk
highInvestors hold $20.3M in liquidation preferences. In an exit at the assumed current valuation of $80M, common shareholders would receive value only after the $20.3M preference is paid, meaning the common equity is effectively valued at $59.7M. If the exit is below $20.3M, common shareholders would receive nothing.
Dilution Risk
highAs a Series A company, Trigger.dev will likely require additional funding rounds (Series B, C, etc.) before a liquidity event, which will lead to further dilution of existing equity holders.
Secondary Liquidity
noneThere is currently no active secondary market for Trigger.dev equity, meaning employees cannot sell shares before a liquidity event.
Engineering — 1 role
- Product Engineer (Europe) · Remote or Hybrid UK
Last updated: March 10, 2026
Questions to Ask at the Interview
Strategic questions based on Trigger.dev's data — designed to show you've done your homework.
- 1
“Given the 'medium' incumbent threat from cloud providers like AWS Step Functions and Azure Logic Apps, how does Trigger.dev plan to maintain its competitive edge and prevent these larger players from expanding into your specialized AI agent orchestration niche?”
- 2
“With a usage-based revenue model and a rapidly growing TAM, what are the key metrics the team is focused on to drive customer adoption and ensure sustainable, predictable revenue growth over the next 2-3 years?”
- 3
“Considering the Series A funding and the typical timeline for venture-backed companies, what is the company's long-term vision for a liquidity event, and how does that timeline factor into the employee equity strategy?”
Community
Valuation Sentiment
Our model estimates -71% upside. What do you think?
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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.