+44%

est. 2Y upside i

Vertical SaaSFinTechSeries D+

Restaurant management platform for POS payments and operations

Rank

#1898

Sector

Restaurant Technology, Fintech

Est. Liquidity

~1Y

Data Quality

Data: High

Toast is a publicly traded company (NYSE: TOST), so RSUs vest into immediately liquid shares — eliminating the binary IPO risk of a pre-IPO offer.

Last updated: May 5, 2026

Bull (27%)+90%

Revenue scales from $6.15B to ~$9.5B by 2027 at a ~24% CAGR while software mix increases and gross margins expand beyond 30%; P/S re-rates to ~4.5x as profitability accelerates, driving market cap to ~$43B — a +116% gain from today's $19.87B. Toast Go 3 global rollout, AI-driven platform differentiation, and hospitality adjacency (Preferred Hotels & Resorts) accelerate penetration of the $67.7B TAM.

Base (52%)+45%

Revenue grows ~20% annually to ~$8.8B by 2027 in line with company guidance of 20-22% recurring gross profit growth; P/S holds near 3.3x, pushing market cap to ~$29B for a +46% gain. Steady penetration of the U.S. restaurant base continues with no major competitive disruption and incremental margin improvement.

Bear (21%)-20%

Growth decelerates to ~15% as DoorDash expands operational tools and Square intensifies pressure on SMB restaurants, compressing P/S to ~2.5x on ~$8.1B in revenue and pushing market cap to ~$20B — roughly flat to -20%. The 25.9% gross margin limits earnings power and investor willingness to pay a premium multiple in a risk-off environment.

Est. time to liquidity~1.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

low

Funding Intensity

5%

Toast is publicly traded; total VC funding of $900M represents only ~4.5% of the $19.87B market cap, and there is no liquidation preference overhang — public common shareholders trade at full parity.

Dilution Risk

moderate

Ongoing SBC for ~7,569 employees creates standard annual dilution (~2-3% estimated), but as a profitable public company there is no need for dilutive equity financings.

Secondary Liquidity

active

TOST trades on NYSE with high daily volume; RSUs vest into freely tradeable shares subject only to standard company trading windows and insider blackout periods.

View all 286 open roles at Toast →

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Toast's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “Toast's 2026 guidance calls for 20-22% recurring gross profit growth — which specific products (software subscriptions, Toast Capital, AI features) are expected to drive gross margin expansion beyond the current 25.9%?”

  • 2

    “With DoorDash investing heavily in restaurant operational tools, how does Toast's go-to-market strategy protect the mid-market and enterprise segments from bundled competitive offers tied to delivery volume?”

  • 3

    “What is the current RSU vesting schedule and cliff, and does Toast offer equity refreshes or performance-based grants for senior roles to mitigate four-year dilution of the initial grant?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates +44% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.