+45%

est. 2Y upside i

FinTechSeries D+

Rank

#1064

Sector

Fintech

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

The equity opportunity offers a 44.5% probability-weighted upside over 2 years, driven by Thunes' strong network effect and expansion into the US market.

Last updated: July 19, 2026

Bull (20%)+139%

IPO or strategic acquisition drives exit multiple to 10x forward revenue, yielding 138.9% company upside. Common stock benefits from leverage due to $362M preference overhang, but is not modeled here. Probability 20%.

Base (55%)+43%

Exit multiple converges to 6x, in line with comparable public fintechs (Wise 8x, PayPal 3x). Projected $215M revenue in 24 months leads to 43.3% upside. Probability 55%.

Bear (25%)-28%

Multiple contracts to 3x on slower growth or competitive pressure from incumbents, yielding -28.3% company upside. Exit value of $645M exceeds total funding, so common stock recovers some value. Probability 25%.

Est. time to liquidity~2.5 years

Preference Stack Risk

high

Funding Intensity

40%

Total funding of $362M creates a 1x liquidation preference equal to 40% of current valuation, severely diluting common returns in downside scenarios.

Dilution Risk

low

The company is profitable and recently raised $150M in Series D, so no additional dilution expected within 2 years beyond existing option pool.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market activity detected; liquidity expected via IPO or acquisition.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Thunes's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does Thunes' network effect strengthen with each new payment partner, and what metrics best measure it?”

  • 2

    “Given the high regulatory burden across 130+ countries, how does Thunes maintain compliance while scaling?”

  • 3

    “If you received equity, how would you assess the company's path to liquidity (IPO vs acquisition) and the impact of the $362M preference stack on your potential return?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates +45% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.