The Exploration Company

exploration.space →

-10%

est. 2Y upside i

AerospaceSeries B

Rank

#3141

Sector

Space Technology

Est. Liquidity

~2Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Given the lack of revenue data, stale valuation ($480M from Nov 2024), and critical competition from SpaceX, the expected equity upside over 2 years is negative (-9.5%).

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Bull (10%)+280%

If major contracts (ESA, NASA) are secured and first flight is successful, valuation could reach ~$1.92B (300% upside) but 20% dilution reduces net to 280%. Requires a favorable IPO window and no technical failures.

Base (50%)+5%

Moderate progress leads to valuation of ~$600M (25% gross upside), but 20% dilution nets 5%. Assumes steady contract wins without major breakthroughs.

Bear (40%)-100%

Technical delays, loss of key contracts, or failure to raise cause valuation to drop below $230M preference stack, resulting in common stock being worthless (-100% net return).

Est. time to liquidity~2.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

48%

Total funding $230M is 48% of $480M valuation, meaning preferred investors have significant downside protection.

Dilution Risk

high

With limited revenue and high burn, an additional round within 2 years is likely, diluting common by 15-25%.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market transactions observed; equity is illiquid until an exit event.

Other — 2 roles

View all 2 open roles at The Exploration Company →

Last updated: February 22, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on The Exploration Company's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does the company plan to compete with SpaceX on cost and reliability?”

  • 2

    “What is the expected timeline to first revenue and profitability, and what are the key milestones?”

  • 3

    “Given the high burn rate and $230M raised, what is the estimated runway and likelihood of a down round?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -10% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.