Swordhealth
+118%
est. 2Y upside i
Rank
#301
Sector
Healthcare Technology
Est. Liquidity
~2Y
Data Quality
Data: MediumSword Health offers significant upside potential, with a probability-weighted expected return of ~118% over 2 years.
Last updated: July 3, 2026
Exit multiple holds at 8x due to market leadership and potential IPO window in 2028, but late-stage cap limits raw upside to 100%. After 20% dilution, net upside is 60%.
Exit multiple converges to 6x, near high end of public comps, driving significant upside. After 20% dilution, net upside of 223% from entry valuation of $2.28B.
Exit multiple compresses to 3x due to incumbent threat and regulatory risks. Preference stack of $494M is cleared, so common still gains, but after 20% dilution net upside is 61.6%.
Preference Stack Risk
highFunding Intensity
22%Total funding of $494M represents 21.7% of secondary valuation, creating high preference overhang for common stock in downside scenarios.
Dilution Risk
moderateCompany is profitable but high growth may require additional capital; a future round could dilute equity by ~20%.
Secondary Liquidity
moderateA $54M employee tender offer was completed in October 2025, indicating active secondary market access, though limited in size.
Commercial — 14 roles
- Account Executive - Enterprise (Canada) · Canada
- Customer Success Manager - Enterprise · United States
- Director of Consultant Relations - Central Territory · United States
- +11 more →
Technology — 14 roles
Business Units — 10 roles
Finance — 7 roles
- Accounting Trainee · Porto
- Accounts Payable Lead · Porto
- Controller · USA
- +4 more →
CEO Team — 6 roles
- Head of Marketing · USA
- QA Analyst, Consumer · Remote (PT)
- Senior Data Scientist, Consumer · Remote (PT)
- +3 more →
AI & Algorithms — 4 roles
Clinical & Regulatory — 3 roles
- Expert Quality Engineer · Remote (PT)
- Intake Physical Therapist (Seasonal) · United States
- Intake Physical Therapist (Spanish only) · United States
Growth — 2 roles
- Data Operations Engineer · United States
- Strategy & Ops Associate · Lisboa
Design — 1 role
Legal — 1 role
- Senior Commercial Counsel (Remote, UK) · Remote (UK)
People — 1 role
- Head of People Ops · United States
Last updated: February 22, 2026
Questions to Ask at the Interview
Strategic questions based on Swordhealth's data — designed to show you've done your homework.
- 1
“How does Sword Health plan to differentiate against Hinge Health's dominant market position and new profitability?”
- 2
“What is the unit economics breakdown (CAC, LTV, gross margin) for PMPM vs. outcome-based contracts?”
- 3
“Given the secondary tender offer in late 2025, what is the expected timeline for the next liquidity event and how does that align with equity grant vesting?”
Community
Valuation Sentiment
Our model estimates +118% upside. What do you think?
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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.