-71%

est. 2Y upside i

DevOps & InfraAI & MLSeries A

Rank

#3206

Sector

Developer Tools, AI

Est. Liquidity

~2Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

The equity opportunity in Anysphere (Cursor) presents a risky profile with moderate upside.

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (25%)+150%

Cursor maintains its hypergrowth trajectory, leveraging its proprietary Composer AI model and Supermaven's advanced context window to achieve clear market leadership in AI-native developer environments. Continued rapid enterprise adoption pushes ARR to $5B-$6B by 2028, justifying a $73B+ valuation at IPO, well above the current $29.3B.

Base (20%)+30%

Cursor continues strong growth, reaching $3B-$4B ARR by 2028, but competitive pressures from GitHub Copilot and OpenAI limit market share expansion and valuation multiple. An IPO at a $38B+ valuation reflects solid execution but a more challenging competitive landscape.

Bear (55%)-40%

Dominant incumbents like GitHub Copilot and new, well-funded competitors (e.g., Anthropic's Claude Code, OpenAI's Windsurf) intensify pricing pressure and capture significant market share. Cursor's growth stalls, or developer trust is eroded by AI limitations, leading to a down round or an IPO at a significantly reduced valuation of $17.5B or less, wiping out a substantial portion of common stock value.

Est. time to liquidity~2.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

moderate

Investors hold approximately $3.365 billion in liquidation preferences ahead of common stock, representing about 11.48% of the latest valuation.

Dilution Risk

high

The company has raised substantial capital across multiple rounds, indicating a high likelihood of future dilution from additional funding or employee option grants.

Secondary Liquidity

limited

While not actively public, at this valuation and stage, limited secondary opportunities may exist for early employees or investors, but it is not a guaranteed or active market.

View all 33 open roles at Supermaven →

Last updated: February 22, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Supermaven's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does Cursor plan to differentiate and defend its market position against the increasing competition from well-resourced incumbents like GitHub Copilot and OpenAI's offerings, especially given the rapid pace of AI innovation?”

  • 2

    “With Cursor's rapid growth and shift towards enterprise customers, what are the key strategies for scaling the sales and support organizations while addressing developer concerns about AI limitations and ensuring product quality?”

  • 3

    “Given the recent Series D funding at a $29.3B valuation, what is the company's anticipated timeline for a liquidity event (e.g., IPO or acquisition), and how is employee equity being managed to mitigate potential dilution from future funding rounds?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -71% upside. What do you think?

Anonymous. Do not share material non-public information.

Community Discussion

Comments are reviewed before they appear publicly.

0/2000

Loading comments...

Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.