-43%

est. 2Y upside i

DevOps & InfraSeries D+

Open source Firebase alternative with Postgres database and authentication

Rank

#3124

Sector

Developer Tools

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

While Supabase has strong growth and competitive moat, its current $10.5B valuation at 62x ARR leaves limited upside over 2 years.

Last updated: July 19, 2026

Bull (20%)+1%

Sustained high growth and category leadership drive exit multiple to 30x forward revenue, yielding a modest 0.9% upside from current $10.5B entry.

Base (35%)-39%

Multiple compresses to 18x as growth normalizes, resulting in a -39.4% loss.

Bear (45%)-66%

Intensified competition from Firebase and growth deceleration push multiple to 10x, leading to -66.3% downside.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years
Adjusted for competitive dynamics: -41% (raw: -43%, adjustment: +3%)

Preference Stack Risk

moderate

Funding Intensity

10%

Total preferred stock of $1B represents 9.5% of current $10.5B valuation, so common stock retains 90.5% of exit value above $1B.

Dilution Risk

low

With $500M from Series F and $1B total funding, company has ample runway for 2+ years, minimizing dilution risk.

Secondary Liquidity

moderate

Supabase offers employee liquidity in funding rounds, providing some secondary market activity but no active public market.

Engineering — 7 roles

Operations — 1 role

View all 32 open roles at Supabase →

Last updated: February 22, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Supabase's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does Supabase plan to differentiate against Firebase's ecosystem and Google's bundling strategy?”

  • 2

    “What is the assumed net revenue retention, and how does your growth model account for customer churn?”

  • 3

    “Given the high valuation, what specific milestones would trigger an IPO or acquisition, and what is the expected timeline for liquidity?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -43% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.