Sully.ai
+22%
est. 2Y upside i
AutonomousOS for healthcare organizations
Rank
#2836
Sector
HealthTech, AI/ML
Est. Liquidity
~4Y
Data Quality
Data: MediumSully.ai is a high-variance equity bet: the $150M Series A valuation already prices in strong execution at 30x ARR, leaving limited margin for error before re-rating risk materializes.
Last updated: May 14, 2026
Sully.ai captures significant enterprise health system share, growing ARR from $5M to ~$28M by mid-2028, triggering a Series B/C at a ~$550M valuation. After $34.8M in preference payoffs and ~20% dilution from new financing, common equity yields approximately +220% from the current $150M baseline.
Moderate ARR growth to ~$14M driven by SMB and mid-market health customers supports a Series B at roughly $280M, a 1.9x step-up. After liquidation preferences of $34.8M and ~20% dilution from new shares, common equity returns approximately +65% over two years.
Microsoft/Nuance and well-funded competitors squeeze pricing and stall enterprise deals; ARR stagnates near $6–8M and a flat or down round values the company at ~$90M. With preferred stock absorbing losses first, common equity loses approximately -72% of its current implied value.
Preference Stack Risk
highFunding Intensity
23%Total liquidation preferences of ~$34.8M sit against a $150M valuation (23.2% funding intensity), meaning preferred stockholders collect first on any exit and absorb first losses below ~$35M enterprise value.
Dilution Risk
highAs a Series A company requiring 2–3 additional rounds before liquidity, each carrying an estimated 15–25% dilution, cumulative common-share dilution could reach 40–55% before any exit event.
Secondary Liquidity
noneNo secondary market activity is indicated for Sully.ai; shares are fully illiquid until an M&A event or IPO, realistically 4+ years away.
Questions to Ask at the Interview
Strategic questions based on Sully.ai's data — designed to show you've done your homework.
- 1
“How does Sully.ai's live clinical decision support differentiate from Microsoft Nuance Dragon Medical One in active EHR deployments, and what is the head-to-head win rate in competitive deals?”
- 2
“What is the current net revenue retention rate, and at what ARR level does the per-provider subscription model reach cash-flow break-even?”
- 3
“What is the current size of the option pool, what is the anticipated dilution from the next funding round, and what is the board's primary liquidity path—M&A or IPO?”
Community
Valuation Sentiment
Our model estimates +22% upside. What do you think?
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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.