+35%

est. 2Y upside i

IPO

Rank

#2597

Sector

Live Entertainment / Marketplace

Est. Liquidity

~0Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Contrarian value: 70% below IPO, FCF-positive, 83% gross margins, ~10x guided EBITDA.

Last updated: March 20, 2026

Bull (25%)+100%

Revenue to $2.3B+, EBITDA >$500M, lawsuit dismissed, re-rate to 14-16x EV/EBITDA, stock to ~$16-17.

Base (45%)+50%

Meets EBITDA guidance $400-420M, revenue $1.9-2.1B, 11-12x EV/EBITDA, stock to ~$10.50.

Bear (30%)-42%

Revenue declines, EBITDA misses at $280-320M, lawsuit settles materially, stock to ~$4-4.50.

Est. time to liquidity~0.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

low

Funding Intensity

12%

Public (NYSE: STUB) — no preference stack.

Dilution Risk

moderate

$1.4B SBC in FY2025 (one-time); ongoing RSU grants.

Secondary Liquidity

active

NYSE-listed, fully liquid.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on StubHub's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “Securities lawsuit status and settlement range?”

  • 2

    “Confidence in $400-420M EBITDA guidance?”

  • 3

    “Response to FTC drip-pricing rules?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates +35% upside. What do you think?

Anonymous. Do not share material non-public information.

Community Discussion

Comments are reviewed before they appear publicly.

0/2000

Loading comments...

Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.