-60%

est. 2Y upside i

IPO

Rank

#3391

Sector

Online ticket marketplace for events

Est. Liquidity

~0Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Given StubHub's negative growth, heavy debt overhang (69.8% of valuation), and pervasive litigation risks, the expected equity upside over 2 years is approximately -60%, likely resulting in total loss for common holders.

Last updated: July 19, 2026

Bull (10%)+22%

Bull scenario assumes return to modest growth and multiple expansion to 3.5x revenue ($5.88B exit), driven by regulatory resolution and market leadership. Dilution of 25pp reduces upside.

Base (35%)-20%

Base case assumes flat revenue and multiple converging to 2.5x ($4.2B exit), with ongoing litigation and competitive pressure. Dilution reduces upside by 25pp.

Bear (55%)-100%

Bear case sees revenue decline, multiple compression to 1.5x ($2.52B exit), and preference stack wipes out common stock. Dilution is irrelevant as exit below funding yields total loss.

Est. time to liquidity~0.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

70%

Total funding of $2.8B represents 69.8% of current valuation, meaning common stock is deeply subordinate in a liquidation scenario.

Dilution Risk

high

Negative growth and losses likely require additional capital, which would dilute common shareholders further.

Secondary Liquidity

active

StubHub shares trade on NYSE under STUB, providing daily liquidity for employees after any lock-up period.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on StubHub's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does StubHub plan to return to revenue growth given the -1% YoY trend?”

  • 2

    “What is the company's strategy to address the ongoing legal and regulatory challenges (FTC, CMA, class actions)?”

  • 3

    “Given the heavy preference stack, what is the expected realizable value for common stock employees over the next 2 years?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -60% upside. What do you think?

Anonymous. Do not share material non-public information.

Community Discussion

Comments are reviewed before they appear publicly.

0/2000

Loading comments...

Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.