-80%

est. 2Y upside i

AerospaceSeries D+

Developer of reusable rockets designed to make space access sustainable and scalable. The company develops rockets to deliver satellites, that can be reused, are low-cost, on-demand and designed to fly daily, enabling clients to launch space missions and deliver new satellites to space in a sustainable and cost-efficient manner.

Rank

#3591

Sector

Space

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Equity offer from Stoke carries significant downside risk given current valuation of $2.74B on only $25.7M revenue.

Last updated: July 19, 2026

Bull (10%)+80%

Assuming an IPO window and category leadership sustain a revenue multiple of ~60x, yielding 100% upside before 20% dilution. However, this requires massive revenue growth.

Base (45%)-95%

With revenue growth to $90M and exit multiple converging to 7.5x, the implied exit value is $675M, a 75% loss before dilution. After 20% dilution, loss deepens to 95.4%.

Bear (45%)-100%

If multiple compresses to 4x and preference stack triggers, common stock recovery is -100%. The $360M exit value is below $1.34B total funding, wiping out equity.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

4900%

Total funding of $1.34B represents 49% of current valuation, creating a large preference overhang.

Dilution Risk

high

Likely additional capital raise within 24 months due to capital intensity, expected 20% dilution.

Secondary Liquidity

moderate

Secondary market exists for current valuation, but liquidity may be limited.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Stoke's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does Stoke's fully reusable second stage differentiate from SpaceX's approach, and what is the development timeline for first launch?”

  • 2

    “What is the company's revenue diversification strategy beyond government contracts?”

  • 3

    “Given the high valuation and preference stack, how does the company plan to manage dilution for employees?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -80% upside. What do you think?

Anonymous. Do not share material non-public information.

Community Discussion

Comments are reviewed before they appear publicly.

0/2000

Loading comments...

Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.