-69%

est. 2Y upside i

Series D+

Rank

#3473

Sector

Blockchain

Est. Liquidity

~5Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Given the stale $8B valuation, severe revenue collapse (Starknet revenue down 99%), and high competitive pressure, the equity upside is likely significantly negative.

Last updated: July 19, 2026

Bull (15%)+30%

If StarkWare successfully launches a new product or secures a major partnership, valuation could recover to $12B, implying a 50% gain before 20% dilution, netting 30%. This scenario requires a significant catalyst in the zk-rollup space.

Base (40%)-70%

Revenues remain low and competition intensifies, leading to a valuation of $4B (50% decline) before 20% dilution, resulting in a 70% loss. This scenario assumes no major positive or negative shocks.

Bear (45%)-100%

Continued revenue collapse and loss of market share drive valuation below $500M, causing near total loss of common equity value. After dilution, the return is effectively -100%.

Est. time to liquidity~5.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

low

Funding Intensity

359%

Total funding of $287M is only 3.6% of the $8B valuation, so preferred stock has a small claim in exit scenarios above $287M.

Dilution Risk

high

The company likely needs additional funding due to revenue collapse, which would significantly dilute current shareholders.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market is available for employee shares based on available data.

View all 6 open roles at StarkWare →

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on StarkWare's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does StarkWare plan to regain revenue growth given the 99% decline in Starknet revenue?”

  • 2

    “What is the company's current cash runway and what dilution might employees face in a future down round?”

  • 3

    “Given the competitive landscape, what is the unique value proposition of STARKs versus other zk-proofs?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -69% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.