-57%

est. 2Y upside i

CybersecuritySeries B

Rank

#3742

Sector

Cybersecurity

Est. Liquidity

~4Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Given the massive 38x ARR valuation and critical incumbent threats, the expected 2-year equity upside is -57%.

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Bull (20%)+53%

If Stairwell's multiple holds at ~38x due to AI-driven demand and successful CEO transition, exit value reaches $505M, yielding 52.7% net upside after 20% dilution.

Base (35%)-75%

As growth slows and multiple converges to public comp range of 10x, exit value drops to $133M, resulting in -74.5% net upside after dilution.

Bear (45%)-93%

Intense competition from Google and CrowdStrike compresses multiple to 6x, exit value $80M, common stock returns -92.7% after dilution; preference stack further reduces common recovery.

Est. time to liquidity~4.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

high

Funding Intensity

2380%

1x non-participating preferred of $69.5M on $292M valuation creates 24% overhang.

Dilution Risk

high

Last round in Oct 2022; with $7.7M ARR and likely burn, a new round within 2 years is probable, diluting common 15-25%.

Secondary Liquidity

limited

Secondary market valuation in Jan 2025 suggests some liquidity, but limited for employees.

Other — 2 roles

View all 2 open roles at Stairwell →

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Stairwell's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does Stairwell's private vault model provide a sustainable moat against Google's VirusTotal?”

  • 2

    “What is the net dollar retention and customer acquisition cost, and how do they trend?”

  • 3

    “Given the equity outlook, what is the company's plan for employee liquidity (tender offers, secondary sales)?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -57% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.