-64%

est. 2Y upside i

CybersecuritySeries A

Spruce is building a future where users own their identity and data across all digital interactions. Our open-source credentialing infrastructure is standards-compliant, production-ready, and extensible into typical enterprise and government IT systems.

Rank

#876

Sector

Decentralized Identity, Cybersecurity, Enterprise Software

Est. Liquidity

~4Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

SpruceID operates in a massive and rapidly growing decentralized identity market (80%+ YoY CAGR) with significant government traction (DHS, California DMV, Utah), indicating strong product validation and potential.

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (26%)+300%

SpruceID's deep integrations with government entities like DHS and California DMV, coupled with a rapidly expanding decentralized identity market (80%+ CAGR), drive significant enterprise adoption of its open-source infrastructure. This leads to a substantial revenue increase, justifying a $1.2B+ valuation by 2028.

Base (48%)+75%

SpruceID continues to secure key government and enterprise contracts, establishing itself as a leader in niche decentralized identity solutions. Steady growth in its SaaS platform and professional services leads to a valuation of approximately $525M by 2028, reflecting solid execution in a competitive landscape.

Bear (26%)-80%

Dominant incumbents or large tech companies launch directly competing decentralized identity solutions, eroding SpruceID's market share and pricing power. Slower-than-expected market adoption or increased regulatory hurdles lead to a down round, with valuation dropping to $60M, significantly impacting common stock value given $41.8M in liquidation preferences.

Est. time to liquidity~4.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

moderate

Investors hold $41.8M in liquidation preferences, which represents 13.9% of the estimated $300M current valuation.

Dilution Risk

high

As a Series A company, SpruceID will likely require multiple additional funding rounds before an exit, leading to significant future dilution for current equity holders.

Secondary Liquidity

limited

Accredited investors can purchase SpruceID shares on the secondary market through Premier Alternatives, but active secondary liquidity for employees is not indicated.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on SpruceID's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How is SpruceID planning to differentiate its offerings and maintain its competitive moat against potential decentralized identity solutions from large incumbents like Okta or Microsoft?”

  • 2

    “Given the long sales cycles and regulatory complexities associated with government contracts, what is SpruceID's strategy for scaling revenue efficiently and diversifying its customer base beyond the public sector?”

  • 3

    “With a Series A funding round in 2022, how does the company envision its path to a liquidity event, and what are the key milestones for employees to see meaningful returns on their equity within a 2-4 year horizon?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -64% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.