+70%

est. 2Y upside i

Media & CommsSeries A

Spline is a free 3D design software with real-time collaboration to create web interactive experiences in the browser. Easy 3d modeling, animation, textures, and more.

Rank

#1206

Sector

Multimedia and Design Software

Est. Liquidity

~4Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Spline has a genuinely differentiated product with impressive customer logos at only $6.7M ARR and 41 employees, but the equity analysis is highly speculative: no confirmed valuation, no reported growth rate, and $32M in total funding creating a preference stack that likely absorbs 27-36% of enterprise value before common stock participates.

Last updated: May 5, 2026

Bull (28%)+220%

Spline becomes the dominant no-code web-native 3D platform, scaling from $6.7M to $22M+ ARR by mid-2028 on the back of AI integration (Omma) and enterprise expansion among its blue-chip customer base; a Series B closes at $250-350M post-money, implying a 2.8-3.9x step-up from the estimated ~$90M Series A valuation. At 15-18x ARR on $22M revenue, common equity participates meaningfully once $32M in preferences clears.

Base (47%)+55%

Spline grows steadily to $12-14M ARR over two years, raises a Series B at roughly $140-160M post-money, and delivers a ~1.5-1.6x step-up over the estimated $90M entry valuation — solid but unlikely to be realized within the 2-year window as the company remains pre-liquidity. The platform retains its niche but faces pricing pressure and slower enterprise penetration than the bull case.

Bear (25%)-70%

Competitive pressure from Adobe, Figma, or AI-native 3D tools stalls growth below $9M ARR; tightening funding conditions force a flat or down round, cutting the estimated $90M baseline valuation in half. With $32M in liquidation preferences senior to common stock, employee equity absorbs the full impairment in any distressed exit or acqui-hire scenario.

Est. time to liquidity~4.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

high

Funding Intensity

36%

$32M in total liquidation preferences against an estimated ~$90M Series A post-money valuation implies roughly 36% of enterprise value must accrue to preferred holders before employee common stock participates in any exit proceeds.

Dilution Risk

high

At Series A stage the company will almost certainly require at least one to two additional funding rounds before a liquidity event, each likely diluting existing common stock by 15-25% per round.

Secondary Liquidity

limited

With 41 employees, no known tender offer history, and a Series A raise completed only 18 months ago, secondary market transactions are highly unlikely within the 2-year analysis horizon.

Other — 2 roles

View all 2 open roles at Spline →

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Spline's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “What is Spline's current ARR and year-over-year growth rate, and how is revenue split between self-serve PLG and enterprise contracts?”

  • 2

    “How does the product roadmap defend against Adobe or Figma embedding interactive 3D natively — what is the switching cost that keeps enterprise customers locked in?”

  • 3

    “What was the post-money valuation and liquidation preference structure on the November 2024 Series A, and is the company planning a tender offer or secondary program in the next 12-24 months?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates +70% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.