Spline
-64%
est. 2Y upside i
Spline is a free 3D design software with real-time collaboration to create web interactive experiences in the browser. Easy 3d modeling, animation, textures, and more.
Rank
#894
Sector
Multimedia and Design Software
Est. Liquidity
~4Y
Data Quality
Data: MediumSpline presents a Strong Upside opportunity for a job seeker, driven by its innovative no-code, web-based approach to interactive 3D design in a growing market.
Last updated: March 10, 2026
Spline's no-code, web-based approach for interactive 3D becomes the standard for web and spatial computing experiences. Significant market adoption, especially with AI features, drives revenue to $50M+ by 2028. An acquisition by a major tech player (e.g., Adobe, Microsoft, Apple) at a premium multiple (e.g., 15x revenue) leads to a $750M+ valuation, representing a 5x return on the current $150M valuation.
Spline continues to grow steadily, capturing a niche in the web-based interactive 3D market. Revenue reaches $15M-$20M by 2028, maintaining strong gross margins. The company raises a successful Series B/C round, or is acquired by a mid-sized software company at a valuation of $250M-$300M, representing a 1.7x to 2x return on the current $150M valuation.
Incumbents like Adobe or Autodesk launch more user-friendly, web-based tools, or a well-funded competitor gains significant traction. Spline struggles to differentiate or expand beyond its early adopter base, leading to slower growth and a down round. Valuation drops to $20M-$30M. Given the $41M in liquidation preferences, common stock holders would see little to no return, effectively a near total loss.
Preference Stack Risk
highInvestors would get the first $41M in a liquidation event, representing 27.33% of the assumed $150M valuation.
Dilution Risk
highAs a Series A company, Spline is likely to undergo 1-2 more funding rounds (Series B, C) before a potential exit, which will lead to further dilution for common shareholders.
Secondary Liquidity
noneGiven Spline's early stage (Series A), there is currently no active secondary market for its shares, and tender offers are unlikely in the near term.
Questions to Ask at the Interview
Strategic questions based on Spline's data — designed to show you've done your homework.
- 1
“Given the strong presence of incumbents like Adobe and Autodesk in the broader 3D design market, how does Spline plan to maintain its competitive moat and prevent larger players from replicating its no-code, web-based interactive 3D offering?”
- 2
“With $2M in revenue and $41M in total funding, what are the key milestones and growth targets Spline aims to achieve in the next 12-18 months to justify its current valuation and attract future funding at an increased valuation?”
- 3
“Considering Spline is a Series A company, how does the leadership team envision the path to a liquidity event for employees, and what is the expected timeline for such an event?”
Community
Valuation Sentiment
Our model estimates -64% upside. What do you think?
Anonymous. Do not share material non-public information.
Community Discussion
Comments are reviewed before they appear publicly.
Loading comments...
Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.