Spark Thermionics
-87%
est. 2Y upside i
Rank
#3643
Sector
Alternative Energy Equipment
Est. Liquidity
~5Y
Data Quality
Data: LowSpark Thermionics presents a risky equity opportunity with an expected upside of 10% over a 2-year horizon.
Last updated: March 10, 2026
Secures a significant follow-on government contract or a strategic partnership, demonstrating an accelerated path to commercialization and attracting a Series A round at a $75M valuation within two years, reflecting strong progress in a critical defense sector.
Continues R&D progress and secures additional smaller grants, maintaining its technological lead but without major commercial breakthroughs, leading to a modest valuation increase to $36M within two years as it prepares for future funding.
Experiences delays in R&D milestones or fails to secure anticipated follow-on funding, leading to a down round or flat round at a lower valuation of $9M within two years, effectively wiping out common stock value due to the $6M in liquidation preferences.
Preference Stack Risk
highInvestors hold $6M in liquidation preferences ahead of common stock. In an exit at or below the assumed $30M valuation, common stock holders would see significantly reduced returns.
Dilution Risk
highAs an early-stage, capital-intensive company, Spark Thermionics will likely require several more rounds of significant funding, leading to substantial dilution for existing equity holders.
Secondary Liquidity
noneThere is no indication of active secondary markets or tender offers for this early-stage, privately held company.
Questions to Ask at the Interview
Strategic questions based on Spark Thermionics's data — designed to show you've done your homework.
- 1
“Given the significant time since your seed round and the ongoing R&D, what is the company's strategy for transitioning from government grants and R&D contracts to scalable commercial product sales, particularly in the Hypersonic Vehicle Market?”
- 2
“With large, established players like Teledyne and GE active in related markets, how does Spark Thermionics plan to maintain its competitive moat and defend its market position as it scales, especially considering their substantial R&D budgets and potential for acquisitions?”
- 3
“Considering the capital-intensive nature of hardware development and the long commercialization cycle for deep tech, what is the anticipated funding roadmap for the next 2-3 years, and how does the company plan to manage potential dilution for early employees?”
Community
Valuation Sentiment
Our model estimates -87% upside. What do you think?
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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.