SiPhox Health
+60%
est. 2Y upside i
Wearable and At-Home protein monitoring with silicon photonic chips
Rank
#1395
Sector
Diagnostic Equipment
Est. Liquidity
~4Y
Data Quality
Data: LowSiPhox Health offers a rare hardware moat in a large ($75B TAM, 18% growth) market, with Intel Capital backing and 100% YoY revenue growth making the bull case credible — but FDA clearance for the consumer platform is unresolved, the current valuation is undisclosed, and $32.8M in total funding creates an estimated 19-22% liquidation preference overhang that materially impairs common stock in any downside scenario.
Last updated: May 14, 2026
FDA clearance granted in 2026-2027 unlocks direct-to-consumer scale; revenue reaches $35-45M by 2028 at continued ~80-100% CAGR, supporting a Series C at $400-500M (~2.7-3x the estimated $150-175M current valuation). Employee common equity nets approximately +200% after one additional dilution round of ~20%, and acquisition interest from Roche, Abbott, or a major diagnostic incumbent becomes credible.
FDA process extends into 2027-2028, moderating consumer channel growth; revenue scales to $18-25M by 2028 at a 40-50% CAGR and a Series B closes at $175-220M (~1.2-1.4x current estimated valuation). Common equity gains roughly +30% in paper value while liquidity remains 3-5 years out and one additional dilutive round is likely.
FDA clearance is denied or substantially delayed past 2028 and hardware capital intensity forces a bridge or down round at $70-90M (~50-60% below current estimated valuation); Everlywell, Function Health ($200M+ raised), and Labcorp's digital push erode early commercial traction. Common holders face severe liquidation preference overhang from $32.8M in funding, resulting in approximately -70% loss on grant-date equity value.
Preference Stack Risk
highFunding Intensity
19%Total disclosed funding of $32.8M sits against an estimated post-money valuation of $150-175M (valuation field is null in source data), implying a liquidation preference load of ~19-22% — squarely in the 'high' range where any exit below ~$65M returns nothing to common stockholders.
Dilution Risk
highA capital-intensive hardware diagnostics company at Series A stage will almost certainly require at least one Series B ($20-40M range) and potentially a Series C before exit, representing an estimated 30-40% cumulative additional dilution to current equity holders.
Secondary Liquidity
noneNo evidence of a secondary market for SiPhox Health shares; at 67 employees and Series A stage, secondary transactions are unlikely without explicit board approval and right-of-first-refusal waivers from all existing investors.
Questions to Ask at the Interview
Strategic questions based on SiPhox Health's data — designed to show you've done your homework.
- 1
“What is the specific FDA regulatory pathway for SiPhox Home — 510(k) or De Novo — what submissions have been filed to date, and what is the most realistic timeline to clearance given current FDA feedback?”
- 2
“What is today's revenue run rate and split between direct-to-consumer subscriptions and white-label B2B partnerships, and which channel do you expect to drive the majority of growth over the next 18-24 months?”
- 3
“What is the current 409A valuation, total fully-diluted share count, and how many additional funding rounds does leadership anticipate before a liquidity event — and at what estimated dilution per round?”
Community
Valuation Sentiment
Our model estimates +60% upside. What do you think?
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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.