-54%

est. 2Y upside i

CybersecuritySeries D+

Sift offers large-scale machine-learning technology services that help e-commerce businesses detect and fight fraud.

Rank

#3309

Sector

Cybersecurity

Est. Liquidity

~4Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

The expected equity upside over 2 years is -54%, reflecting high risk.

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Bull (10%)+1%

If Sift captures an IPO window and maintains its current revenue multiple near 15x, exit value reaches $2.22B, yielding 0.7% net of dilution. However, IPO signals are absent.

Base (45%)-40%

With convergence toward public comp multiples (10x), exit value of $1.48B leads to -19.6% before dilution; after 20% dilution, -39.6%.

Bear (45%)-80%

Multiple compression to 5x due to intense incumbent competition (Google, Microsoft) and revenue decline yields $740M exit; after preference stack, common stock loses 79.8%.

Est. time to liquidity~4.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

high

Funding Intensity

38917%

Total funding $389M represents 21% of entry valuation; 1x non-participating preferred gives preference overhang of $389M.

Dilution Risk

high

With no recent funding and potential cash burn, a 20% dilution from a future round is assumed.

Secondary Liquidity

moderate

Secondary transactions at $1.84B indicate some liquidity, but volume likely limited.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Sift Science's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does Sift plan to differentiate from Google's and Microsoft's fraud detection capabilities?”

  • 2

    “What is the unit economics and path to profitability given the revenue decline?”

  • 3

    “Given the high valuation multiple, what growth trajectory justifies the current secondary market price?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -54% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.