-89%

est. 2Y upside i

InsurTechSeries B

Shepherd is a technology-driven Managing General Underwriter (MGU) transforming commercial Property & Casualty insurance for high-hazard industries. Our mission is to make risk frictionless for the builders and operators shaping the physical world — protecting progress from concept through construction and into decades of operation.

Rank

#3688

Sector

Insurtech

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

The equity is highly risky with an expected -89% return over 2 years under base assumptions.

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Bull (10%)+12%

Revenue grows 100% then 80% to $4.68M, multiple expands to 6x (AI leadership/IPO window), exit value $28.1M, after 20% dilution net 12% upside.

Base (45%)-100%

Revenue grows to $4.68M, multiple converges to 3.5x, exit value $16.4M below $67M liquidation preference, common stock returns -100%.

Bear (45%)-100%

Revenue stalls or grows slowly, multiple compresses to 1x, exit value $4.7M far below preference, common stock returns -100%.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

515400%

Total funding of $67M creates a large liquidation preference; in both base and bear scenarios, common stock receives nothing.

Dilution Risk

moderate

While a recent Series B provides cushion, the low revenue suggests another raise may be needed within 2 years, causing 20% dilution.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary trading data available for this private company.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Shepherd's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How will Shepherd differentiate from Procore's risk advisory services?”

  • 2

    “What is the unit economics of a typical underwriting contract?”

  • 3

    “What is the expected timeline to liquidity and how does the preference stack affect common stock?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -89% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.