-64%

est. 2Y upside i

DevOps & InfraSeries C

Rank

#3435

Sector

Database Software

Est. Liquidity

~5Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Equity in ScyllaDB carries a significantly negative expected return of -64% over a 2-year horizon, driven by low growth, high preference overhang, and competitive pressure.

Last updated: July 19, 2026

Bull (10%)+9%

Bull case: ScyllaDB's vector search and DynamoDB alternative drive faster adoption, sustaining 7x revenue multiple on $27.7M projected revenue, yielding ~9% upside after 20% dilution.

Base (35%)-28%

Base case: Revenue grows slowly to $27.7M, multiple contracts to 5x, resulting in -27.7% upside after dilution, as incumbents pressure pricing and growth.

Bear (55%)-100%

Bear case: Multiple compresses to 3x, exit value $83M below $107M funding, common stock worthless, -100% return.

Est. time to liquidity~5.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

42800%

Total funding $107M vs estimated valuation $150M = 71% preference overhang; in any exit below $107M, common stock returns zero.

Dilution Risk

high

With low growth and no profitability, additional funding rounds are likely within 2 years, expected to dilute common equity by 20% or more.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market activity or implied secondary valuation observed.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on ScyllaDB's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does ScyllaDB plan to accelerate growth beyond 8% given incumbent competition?”

  • 2

    “What is the unit economics and path to profitability?”

  • 3

    “What is the expected timeframe for liquidity events and how does the employee stock option pool manage dilution?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -64% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.