-81%

est. 2Y upside i

AI & MLSeries D+

Data labeling and AI infrastructure platform for training machine learning models

Rank

#3593

Sector

AI Infrastructure

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Common equity in Scale AI faces severe preference overhang ($15.9B vs $29B valuation) and low growth (14.5%), leading to a negative expected upside of -81% over 2 years.

Last updated: July 19, 2026

Bull (15%)+25%

Revenue grows at 14.5% (no decay) to $1.14B, exit multiple 30x (above comp range due to strategic value) yields $34.2B EV; after preference, common returns +24.5% net of 15% dilution.

Base (50%)-100%

Revenue grows with decay to $1.04B, exit multiple 8x yields $8.4B EV, well below $15.9B preference; common stock recovers -100%.

Bear (35%)-100%

Revenue growth slows further to ~10% (below decay), exit multiple 4x yields $4.2B EV, deep below preference; common stock recovers -100%.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years
Adjusted for competitive dynamics: -81% (raw: -81%, adjustment: +1%)

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

5480%

Total funding of $15.9B is 55% of the $29B valuation, meaning preferred stock holders claim the first $15.9B in any exit, leaving common with only the residual.

Dilution Risk

low

The company just raised $14.3B in Series G (June 2025), providing ample runway; no near-term raise expected, so dilution risk is low.

Secondary Liquidity

limited

Secondary market exists at the same $29B valuation, but volume and accessibility for employees may be limited as a private company.

View all 172 open roles at Scale AI →

Last updated: February 22, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Scale AI's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does Scale AI plan to retain and grow revenue from its remaining anchor customers like Meta, given departures of OpenAI and Google?”

  • 2

    “What are the unit economics of a typical customer contract, and how does the company plan to improve gross margins from the current 50%?”

  • 3

    “Given the $15.9B preference stack, what is the realistic path to common stock value creation, and what is the expected liquidity timeline?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -81% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.