-41%

est. 2Y upside i

AI & MLSeries D+

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Rank

#3368

Sector

Artificial Intelligence / Generative Media

Est. Liquidity

~4Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

High-conviction bet on specialized AI video surviving trillion-dollar incumbents. $155M burn with ~$90M ARR means 2-3 more rounds diluting employees.

Last updated: March 20, 2026

Bull (20%)+160%

Gen-4/5 models maintain leadership, world model pivot unlocks new verticals, ARR to $400-500M, IPO at $15-18B.

Base (45%)+10%

Holds creative niche ~$200M ARR, competition compresses multiples, IPO around $6-8B.

Bear (35%)-55%

Big-tech commoditizes video gen, ARR stalls, down round below preference stack.

Est. time to liquidity~3.5 years

Preference Stack Risk

high

Funding Intensity

16%

$860M in preferences; sub-$1.5B exit returns nothing to employees.

Dilution Risk

high

~$150M/year burn implies 2+ more rounds adding 20-30% dilution.

Secondary Liquidity

limited

Forge, EquityZen, Hiive but with ROFR restrictions.

Engineering — 2 roles

Go-To-Market — 1 role

View all 3 open roles at Runway →

Last updated: February 22, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Runway's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How defend against Google Veo bundling?”

  • 2

    “Path to gross-margin positivity at what ARR?”

  • 3

    “At what exit does common stock participate given $860M preferences?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -41% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.