+29%

est. 2Y upside i

CybersecurityIPO

Rank

#2842

Sector

Cybersecurity

Est. Liquidity

~2Y

Data Quality

Data: High

Rubrik is a high-growth cybersecurity company (49% TTM revenue growth) in a critical and expanding market (TAM $52.9B) with a strong competitive moat.

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (27%)+100%

Rubrik solidifies its market leadership in cyber resilience, driven by strong adoption of its Rubrik Security Cloud Sovereign and successful expansion into new enterprise segments. Revenue growth accelerates to 40%+ YoY, reaching over $2.3 billion by 2028, and the company demonstrates a clear path to sustained profitability, justifying a valuation of $22.88 billion (100% upside) at a premium P/S multiple.

Base (42%)+35%

Rubrik maintains its strong position in data security, growing subscription revenue at a steady 30% YoY, reaching approximately $2.0 billion by 2028. It continues to compete effectively against incumbents like Cohesity and Commvault, gradually improving operating margins. The valuation grows to around $15.44 billion (35% upside), reflecting solid execution and market presence.

Bear (31%)-40%

Increased competition from established players like Microsoft and Palo Alto Networks, coupled with a broader market downturn and valuation compression for unprofitable growth stocks, significantly impacts Rubrik's growth and multiple. Revenue growth slows to below 20% YoY, and the company struggles to achieve profitability, leading to a valuation decline to $6.864 billion (-40% downside), potentially impacting common stock value.

Est. time to liquidity~2.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

moderate

Funding Intensity

11%

Investors hold approximately $1.3 billion in liquidation preferences, representing about 11.36% of the current $11.44 billion market capitalization, which is a moderate preference stack for common shareholders.

Dilution Risk

moderate

The company recently IPO'd, and shares outstanding increased by over 57% in the last year, indicating past dilution. While the IPO provides liquidity, continued unprofitability could lead to further dilution through stock-based compensation or future capital raises, though recent positive free cash flow may mitigate this.

Secondary Liquidity

active

As a publicly traded company on the NYSE (RBRK), Rubrik's shares offer active daily trading liquidity.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Rubrik's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “Given the recent analyst price target cuts due to valuation concerns and multiple compression, how is Rubrik planning to demonstrate continued value creation to the market, especially against competitors like Commvault and the expanding offerings from cloud providers?”

  • 2

    “With the strong TTM revenue growth of nearly 49% but continued unprofitability, what are the key levers the company plans to pull to achieve sustained GAAP profitability and positive free cash flow over the next two years?”

  • 3

    “Considering the recent IPO and the current market conditions, what is the company's strategy for managing employee equity value and potential dilution, and how do you envision the growth trajectory for individual contributors within the engineering organization?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates +29% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.