Relativity Space

-55%

est. 2Y upside i

AerospaceSeries D+

Building humanity’s multiplanetary future.

Rank

#3337

Sector

Aerospace and Defense

Est. Liquidity

~2Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Given the high preference overhang ($2.4B vs $3B entry), significant capital needs, and strong competition, the expected return over 2 years is -55%.

Last updated: July 21, 2026

Bull (10%)+21%

Revenue recovery to $256M by 2028, multiple sustained at 16.5x due to NASA contract and IPO momentum. After 20% dilution, return ~21%.

Base (50%)-35%

Revenue grows modestly to $256M, multiple compresses to 10x in line with public comps. Dilution reduces ownership, resulting in -35% return.

Bear (40%)-100%

Exit value below $2.4B preference stack, common stock worthless due to liquidation preference. Return -100%.

Est. time to liquidity~2.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

1320%

Total funding of $2.4B represents 80% of the $3B entry valuation, indicating severe preference overhang.

Dilution Risk

high

Company has high cash burn and may require additional funding, leading to 15-25% dilution over 2 years.

Secondary Liquidity

limited

Recent secondary trades at $3B indicate some liquidity, but depth may be limited.

Other — 5 roles

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Relativity Space's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

1
“How does Relativity's 3D printing cost advantage translate into pricing vs Falcon 9?”
2
“What is the revenue trajectory for Terran R given the current backlog?”
3
“With $2.4B raised, what is the path to positive cash flow?”

Our model estimates -55% upside. What do you think?

Anonymous. Do not share material non-public information.

Comments are reviewed before they appear publicly.

Loading comments...

Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.