-33%

est. 2Y upside i

Helping create a smaller, fairer, safer justice system

Rank

#2406

Sector

Civic Tech

Est. Liquidity

~4Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Recidiviz presents a moderate upside opportunity, primarily driven by its strong mission, proven impact, and significant growth in state partnerships (17 states, 40% of US prison population).

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (40%)+100%

Recidiviz significantly expands its state partnerships to 40+ states, deepens integrations, and successfully launches new AI-powered product lines for case management and sentencing. This drives substantial increases in grants and contracts, pushing its hypothetical valuation to $156M, representing a 2x return on the current imputed value.

Base (35%)+25%

Recidiviz continues its steady growth, expanding to a few more states and solidifying existing partnerships. The organization maintains profitability and demonstrates consistent impact, leading to a moderate increase in its hypothetical valuation to $97.5M, a 25% upside.

Bear (25%)-40%

Slower-than-expected state adoption, increased regulatory hurdles, or intensified competition from other civic tech solutions lead to stagnation in growth. The hypothetical valuation declines to $46.8M, resulting in a 40% downside for equity holders.

Est. time to liquidity~4.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

moderate

Funders have contributed $12M, representing approximately 15.4% of the hypothetical $78M valuation. In a traditional for-profit scenario, this would mean preferred shares hold $12M in liquidation preferences ahead of common equity.

Dilution Risk

low

As a profitable non-profit primarily funded by grants and contracts, traditional equity dilution from venture capital rounds is not a primary concern. However, the value of phantom equity or performance units could be subject to internal policy changes or the organization's long-term financial health.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No active secondary market or tender offers are expected for non-profit equity.

Other — 12 roles

View all 12 open roles at Recidiviz →

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Recidiviz's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “Given Recidiviz's non-profit status, how is 'equity compensation' structured, and what are the realistic mechanisms for employees to realize financial value from their equity over a 2-5 year horizon?”

  • 2

    “With the company's success in partnering with 17 states, what are the biggest challenges and opportunities in scaling to 40 states, particularly regarding data integration complexity and maintaining bipartisan support?”

  • 3

    “Recidiviz is profitable and growing. How does the organization balance its mission to reduce incarceration with the need for financial sustainability and continued innovation, especially as it expands its product offerings like AI-powered assistants?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -33% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.