-78%

est. 2Y upside i

Hardware

Rank

#3261

Sector

Semiconductors

Est. Liquidity

~2Y

Data Quality

Data: High

QuickLogic presents a risky equity opportunity with a modest expected upside over a two-year horizon.

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (15%)+100%

QuickLogic successfully expands its Strategic Radiation Hardened FPGA programs with the U.S. government, securing additional large contracts and accelerating SensiML adoption in high-growth Edge AI markets. This drives sustained 30%+ annual revenue growth, reaching approximately $34 million by 2028, and a market re-rating to $284 million (2x current valuation) as profitability becomes visible.

Base (40%)+70%

QuickLogic maintains its specialized niche in radiation-hardened FPGAs with steady government contracts and sees moderate adoption of its new eFPGA IP, but faces stiff competition in the broader commercial Edge AI market. Revenue grows to approximately $34 million by 2028, and the company remains unprofitable, leading to a valuation of approximately $241 million.

Bear (45%)-50%

Delays in government programs, slower-than-anticipated adoption of SensiML in industrial IoT, and aggressive competition from larger players like Lattice and Intel in eFPGA and Edge AI lead to revenue contraction to approximately $16 million by 2028. Persistent unprofitability and the high preference stack result in a valuation decline to approximately $71 million, wiping out half of the current market value.

Est. time to liquidity~2.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

66%

Total funding of $94 million represents 66.2% of the current $142 million valuation, indicating that a significant amount of capital has been invested relative to the current market cap.

Dilution Risk

high

As the company is currently unprofitable and forecast to remain so, there is a high likelihood of future capital raises, which could dilute existing shareholders.

Secondary Liquidity

active

As a publicly traded company on NASDAQ (QUIK), shares can be bought and sold on the open market.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on QuickLogic's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How is QuickLogic planning to mitigate the risks associated with its reliance on a small number of long-cycle government contracts, especially given the current unprofitability?”

  • 2

    “With larger incumbents like Intel and Lattice Semiconductor in the broader FPGA market, what specific strategies will QuickLogic employ to defend and expand its market share in the specialized eFPGA and Edge AI segments?”

  • 3

    “Given the current valuation and the significant amount of capital raised historically, what is the company's strategy to achieve sustained profitability and deliver substantial returns for common stockholders over the next 2-3 years?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -78% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.