+10%

est. 2Y upside i

AerospaceSeries D+

Stage: growth. Country: Germany

Rank

#1848

Sector

Aerospace/Defense Tech

Est. Liquidity

~1Y

Data Quality

Data: High

Quantum Systems offers high upside potential (178% in bull case) but with significant downside risk (71% loss in bear).

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Bull (25%)+178%

Driven by successful IPO in early 2027 and category leadership; exit multiple holds at 20x revenue on $935M revenue, yielding $16.7B common equity after preference.

Base (30%)-9%

Exit multiple converges to public comp median of 8x revenue; exit value $7.48B leaves common stock at $5.48B after $2B liquidation preference.

Bear (45%)-71%

Intense incumbent competition compresses multiple to 4x revenue; exit value $3.74B leaves common stock at $1.74B after preference.

Est. time to liquidity~1.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

high

Funding Intensity

2500%

Total liquidation preference of $2B represents 25% of current valuation, meaning common stock is effectively diluted by $2B at exit.

Dilution Risk

low

Company is profitable and recently raised $1.2B Series D, suggesting no near-term dilutive rounds.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market activity indicated; liquidity expected via IPO.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Quantum Systems's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    How do you plan to sustain 100% YoY growth as revenue scales and competition intensifies?

  • 2

    Describe the margin profile of your hybrid revenue model (hardware vs software) and how it shifts over time?

  • 3

    With an IPO on the horizon, how will equity be structured and what is the expected liquidity timeline?

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates +10% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.