Outbrain
-2%
est. 2Y upside i
Rank
#2337
Sector
Communication Services / Interactive Media & Services (AdTech)
Est. Liquidity
~2Y
Data Quality
Data: MediumThe equity upside over 2 years is expected to be -2% probabilistically, with significant downside risk from high debt and intense competition.
Last updated: July 3, 2026
Operational turnaround and debt restructuring lead to multiple expansion to 0.14x revenue, yielding $159M exit value. Net of 20% dilution, upside is 80%.
Multiple converges to 0.15x revenue on stabilized cash flows, exit value $175M. After 20% dilution, net upside 100%.
Revenue continues decline, multiple compresses to 0.06x, exit value $70M. Well below $404M preference stack, common stock worthless.
Preference Stack Risk
severeFunding Intensity
508%Total funding of $404M exceeds current valuation of $79.5M, meaning common stock has zero liquidation preference.
Dilution Risk
highWith high debt and negative cash flow, a dilutive equity raise within 24 months is highly probable, expected to dilute existing common holders by 20%.
Secondary Liquidity
activeThe company trades on Nasdaq, so employee shares are liquid post-vesting.
Questions to Ask at the Interview
Strategic questions based on Outbrain's data — designed to show you've done your homework.
- 1
“How would you grow revenue in an environment where walled gardens dominate?”
- 2
“What is your view on the company's high debt level and its impact on equity value?”
- 3
“How does the preference stack affect the value of employee equity?”
Community
Valuation Sentiment
Our model estimates -2% upside. What do you think?
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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.