Orangewood Labs

orangewood.co →

+80%

est. 2Y upside i

RoboticsSeries A

Orangewood Labs makes worlds most affordable and easiest AI robot arms

Rank

#591

Sector

Industrial Robotics

Est. Liquidity

~4Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Orangewood's $12.6M ARR and differentiated RoboGPT platform offer a credible path to a 2-year upside near 80%, but only if growth stays near 50% and the exit multiple holds near 4x.

Last updated: August 24, 2026

Bull (25%)+235%

If RoboGPT drives category leadership and an IPO/acquisition window opens in 2027-28, revenue reaches ~$22.2M and the exit multiple expands to 8x, implying ~$178M exit value. After 20% dilution, common stock upside is ~235%.

Base (50%)+58%

At 50% growth decaying to 28%, revenue reaches ~$22.2M by mid-2028; exit multiple converges to 4x (in line with ABB/FANUY/TER range), yielding ~$89M exit value. After 20% dilution, upside is ~58%.

Bear (25%)-31%

If growth stalls below 30% and competitive pressure compresses the multiple to 2x, exit value is ~$44M, below the $50M entry. After 20% dilution, common stock loses ~31%; preferred stack is still covered since exit > $4.65M.

Est. time to liquidity~4.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

moderate

Funding Intensity

9%

$4.65M of 1x non-participating preferred equals ~9% of the $50M entry valuation, so the preference overhang is modest but not negligible.

Dilution Risk

high

With the last round in Aug 2023 and only $4.65M total funding against high capital intensity, a new dilutive raise within 24 months is likely and could reduce common ownership by ~20%.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market, transfer windows, or buyback program were indicated; shares remain illiquid until a liquidity event.

View all 19 open roles at Orangewood Labs →

Last updated: February 22, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Orangewood Labs's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “What is the company's current 409A fair-market value, and when was it last updated relative to the August 2023 Series A?”

  • 2

    “What is the expected cash runway, and what pricing/terms would the next raise likely carry given only $4.65M total funding?”

  • 3

    “How do RaaS subscription margins and payback periods compare to outright arm sales, and what is the enterprise expansion strategy?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates +80% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.