-14%

est. 2Y upside i

Series D+

Rank

#3743

Sector

AdTech

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

OpenX presents a risky equity opportunity with moderate upside potential over a two-year horizon.

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (15%)+100%

OpenX successfully navigates its lawsuit against Google, leading to a more favorable competitive landscape and increased market share, particularly in the rapidly growing CTV and political advertising segments. Strong adoption of OpenXBuild and continued innovation in identity solutions push revenue to $500M+ by 2028, justifying a $1.28B valuation (2x current) at a higher revenue multiple.

Base (40%)+25%

OpenX maintains its profitable position and achieves moderate growth by leveraging its identity graph and expanding in CTV, but continues to face intense competition from dominant incumbents. Revenue grows steadily to ~$325M by 2028, leading to an $800M valuation, a modest 25% increase from current levels.

Bear (45%)-40%

The lawsuit against Google yields an unfavorable outcome, or increased privacy regulations and incumbent dominance erode OpenX's market position and pricing power. Growth stalls, and revenue declines to ~$200M, resulting in a down round or acquisition at a $384M valuation, representing a 40% decrease and significantly impacting common stock value.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

moderate

Funding Intensity

13%

Investors hold $85M in liquidation preferences ahead of common stock, representing 13.3% of the current $640M valuation.

Dilution Risk

moderate

Given the last funding round was in 2013, future capital raises before an exit could lead to further dilution for existing equity holders.

Secondary Liquidity

none

There is currently low market activity with no active buyers or sellers for OpenX shares in private markets.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on OpenX's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “Given Google's dominant market share in Ad Exchange and Ad Serving, how does OpenX plan to differentiate and grow its market position, especially in light of the ongoing lawsuit?”

  • 2

    “With the shift away from third-party cookies, how will OpenX's proprietary identity graph and first-party data strategy evolve to maintain and enhance its competitive advantage?”

  • 3

    “Considering the Series E funding was in 2013 and the CEO's 2022 statement about no immediate IPO, what is the company's updated strategy and timeline for a liquidity event for employees?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -14% upside. What do you think?

Anonymous. Do not share material non-public information.

Community Discussion

Comments are reviewed before they appear publicly.

0/2000

Loading comments...

Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.