-12%

est. 2Y upside i

Series D+

Rank

#2596

Sector

AdTech

Est. Liquidity

~2Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

The probability-weighted equity upside is -12%, reflecting high bear-case risk from Google competition and stale data.

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Bull (10%)+35%

M&A materializes at a 3x forward revenue multiple (EV $547.5M), driven by board's CEO search as precursor to sale. Common stock value rises 34.8% from estimated entry common equity of $343.1M.

Base (45%)+8%

Revenue modestly grows to $182.5M, exit multiple at 2.5x (EV $456.25M), in line with public SSP peers. Common stock gains 8.2%.

Bear (45%)-45%

Multiple compresses to 1.5x due to Google dominance and management instability, EV $273.75M. After $85M preference, common stock recovers $188.75M, a 45% loss on entry common equity.

Est. time to liquidity~2.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

high

Funding Intensity

0%

Total funding of $85M represents 19.9% of the $428M valuation, so preferred holders have a significant claim on exits up to $85M.

Dilution Risk

low

Company is profitable and has not raised in 13 years, so no immediate dilution expected in 2-year horizon.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market exists for OpenX shares; liquidity only via M&A or IPO.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on OpenX's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does OpenX differentiate its SSP from Google Ad Manager and maintain publisher loyalty?”

  • 2

    “Given the 2017 revenue figure, what is the current revenue trajectory and how does pricing (take rate) compare to PubMatic and Magnite?”

  • 3

    “With a high preference stack (~20% of valuation) and no secondary liquidity, how does OpenX structure equity grants and what is the expected path to liquidity?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -12% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.