+63%

est. 2Y upside i

Series D+

We make robots for biologists.

Rank

#813

Sector

Lab Automation

Est. Liquidity

~5Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Opentrons offers high upside if growth and multiple expansion materialize, but severe preference overhang and capital needs pose significant risk.

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Bull (10%)+200%

Bull case: Exit multiple expands to 5x due to AI leadership and IPO window, but late-stage constraints cap upside at 200%. Projected exit value ~$750M pre-dilution.

Base (45%)+196%

Base case: Exit multiple converges to 4x within the comp range on $150M revenue. Estimated exit value ~$600M pre-dilution, yielding ~196% net upside after 20% dilution.

Bear (45%)-100%

Bear case: Multiple compresses to 1.5x due to incumbent pressure and regulatory barriers, resulting in exit value ~$225M, below $260M preference stack. Common stock recovers -100%.

Est. time to liquidity~5.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

26020%

Total preferred stock of $260.2M exceeds current valuation of $162.4M, implying common stock has negative equity value at current marks.

Dilution Risk

high

Likely need additional capital within 2 years given unprofitability and high capital intensity, potentially diluting existing holders 15-25%.

Secondary Liquidity

moderate

Secondary market exists with $162.4M valuation, providing limited liquidity for employees.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Opentrons's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does Opentrons plan to defend against incumbent giants like Hamilton and Tecan in high-value pharma contracts?”

  • 2

    “What is the path to profitability given the low gross margin (35%) and high capital intensity?”

  • 3

    “What is the typical liquidity timeline for employees, and how are secondary market transactions facilitated?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates +63% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.