+14%

est. 2Y upside i

Sales & MarketingSeries C

Engage customers through personalized omni-channel messaging

Rank

#1727

Sector

Marketing Tech

Est. Liquidity

~4Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

OneSignal presents moderate upside potential (14% expected return) but with high risk due to stale valuation, intense competition from big tech, and slowing growth.

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Bull (20%)+89%

Bull scenario driven by IPO window opening and category leadership. Implied exit multiple expands to 10x on $52.7M revenue, yielding $527M exit, but 20% dilution reduces net upside to 88.8%.

Base (35%)+37%

Base scenario: exit multiple converges to 7.5x, in line with Braze multiples. Exit value $395M, 20% dilution nets 36.6% upside.

Bear (45%)-36%

Bear scenario: multiple compresses to 4x due to incumbent competition and growth deceleration. Exit value $211M, below entry, and with dilution loss of -36.4%. Preference stack covers $84M but exit still above, so common recovers partially.

Est. time to liquidity~4.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

3340%

Total funding of $84.3M represents 33.4% of current valuation, creating a severe preference overhang that could significantly dilute common equity in a down round.

Dilution Risk

high

Given the round age (3+ years) and no profitability, a down round or large raise is likely within 24 months, potentially diluting employees 15-25%.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market activity indicated. Employees likely cannot sell shares until a liquidity event.

Other — 2 roles

View all 2 open roles at OneSignal →

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on OneSignal's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does OneSignal differentiate from Braze's enterprise offerings?”

  • 2

    “What drives the recent revenue decline? Is it churn or pricing?”

  • 3

    “What is the path to IPO and liquidity for employees?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates +14% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.