+24%

est. 2Y upside i

AerospaceSeries A

Vertical takeoff and landing aircraft for major airlines

Rank

#2751

Sector

Aerospace and Defense

Est. Liquidity

~7Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Odys Aviation is a high-conviction bet only for candidates who can afford to treat their equity as near-zero on a 2-year horizon: the company sits at $120M valuation on $4.4M revenue with a 32% preference stack, competing against rivals with 25–50x more capital raised.

Last updated: May 14, 2026

Bull (8%)+350%

Odys wins a significant US DoD or allied defense contract ($50M+) and completes full-scale flight testing, attracting a strategic acquisition by a defense prime or a Series B at ~$500–600M valuation — roughly 350% above the current $120M. The Honeywell counter-drone 'Laila' partnership and dual-use VTOL positioning accelerate DoD procurement faster than commercial-focused rivals like Joby and Archer.

Base (42%)+80%

Odys closes a Series B at ~$200–220M post-money within 2 years, anchored by Oman MoD and US DoD contract progress and continued flight-test milestones, yielding ~80% paper upside from the $120M entry valuation — but common equity remains fully illiquid. Certification slips 12–18 months beyond plan, keeping the company pre-revenue at scale and reliant on further dilutive rounds.

Bear (50%)-75%

The May 2026 $173K micro-raise — just 7 months after a $26M Series A — signals a funding crunch; Odys fails to close a Series B as investor appetite is crowded out by better-funded rivals (Joby $1.8B+ raised, Archer $1B+), forcing a down-round or wind-down that destroys 75–90% of common equity value. High capital intensity, FAA certification risk, and a 50-person team's limited execution bandwidth make this the modal 2-year outcome.

Est. time to liquidity~7.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

32%

Total funding of $38.5M against a $120M post-money valuation yields a 32.1% preference stack ratio, exceeding the severe threshold; preferred holders claim ~$38.5M in liquidation preferences before common stockholders receive any proceeds.

Dilution Risk

high

A capital-intensive VTOL hardware program at Series A with only $38.5M raised will require multiple large future rounds (Series B, C, and likely structured debt), each meaningfully diluting common equity before any liquidity event.

Secondary Liquidity

none

At 50 employees and pre-commercial production scale, Odys has no active secondary market; employees should plan for full illiquidity until a trade sale or IPO, realistically 6–8 years out.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Odys Aviation's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “What does the May 2026 $173K raise represent — is it a grant, a strategic tranche, or part of a rolling close — and what is the company's current cash runway and Series B timeline?”

  • 2

    “How does the hybrid-electric propulsion architecture translate into a materially different certification timeline or unit cost curve versus Joby's and Archer's pure-electric designs at production scale?”

  • 3

    “What is the current 409A strike price relative to the $120M Series A post-money valuation, what percentage of the fully diluted cap table is reserved for the employee option pool, and has the board ever approved a secondary liquidity window for employees?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates +24% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.