-54%

est. 2Y upside i

Vertical SaaSSeries B

Radically simplifying cross-border logistics between USA & Mexico

Rank

#3312

Sector

Logistics

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Given the stale valuation, high preference stack, and likely need for further dilution, the expected equity upside is very negative at -53.5% over 2 years.

Last updated: July 19, 2026

Bull (30%)+55%

Nuvocargo IPOs at an 8x forward revenue multiple driven by AI platform and huge TAM, yielding $437.6M exit. After 20% dilution from a likely raise, common stock returns 55%.

Base (45%)-100%

Revenue reaches $54.7M but public comps compress to 1x, yielding $54.7M exit below $75.6M preferred stack. Common stock is worthless, -100%.

Bear (25%)-100%

Revenue disappoints or multiples compress further to 0.5x, yielding $27.4M exit. Preferred stack entirely absorbs proceeds, common returns -100%.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

30%

Total preferred funding of $75.6M represents 30% of the $250M valuation, meaning common shareholders are deeply underwater in any exit below ~$100M.

Dilution Risk

high

With no new funding since June 2023 and three acquisitions in 2025, a capital raise within 2 years is highly probable, potentially diluting common by 20% or more.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market observed; no tender offers reported.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Nuvocargo's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “Given the high preference stack, how does the company plan to achieve a liquidity event that rewards common shareholders?”

  • 2

    “What specific metrics drive the company's valuation above 12x trailing revenue?”

  • 3

    “How does the recent M&A strategy integrate with the core platform and contribute to revenue growth?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -54% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.