Numerai

-41%

est. 2Y upside i

FinTechAI & MLSeries C

Rank

#3134

Sector

Fintech, AI, Quantitative Finance

Est. Liquidity

~4Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

The equity opportunity at Numerai carries high risk given the current $500M valuation on only $14M revenue (35x), far above public comps at 6-9x.

Last updated: July 19, 2026

Bull (25%)+48%

Numerai retains its current 35x multiple as the market values its unique AI hedge fund platform, exit value ~$739M, upside ~48%.

Base (55%)-68%

Multiple converges to 8x (in line with public SaaS comps), exit value ~$169M, downside ~66%.

Bear (20%)-83%

Multiple falls to 4x due to competitive pressure, exit value ~$85M, downside ~83%.

Est. time to liquidity~4.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

moderate

Funding Intensity

10%

Total funding $52M vs valuation $500M (10.4%), so preferred stack is moderate; common stock recovers fully unless exit below $52M.

Dilution Risk

low

Company is profitable and recently raised, unlikely to need additional funding within 24 months.

Secondary Liquidity

limited

No secondary market data; token (NMR) provides some liquidity but not for equity.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Numerai's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

1
“How does Numerai plan to defend its competitive moat against incumbents like Renaissance Technologies as they develop their own AI strategies?”
2
“What is the breakdown of revenue between management fees, performance fees, and token treasury, and how does each grow with AUM?”
3
“What is the typical vesting schedule, and is there a secondary market for employee equity given the token component?”

Our model estimates -41% upside. What do you think?

Anonymous. Do not share material non-public information.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.